Bears vs Commanders NFL Week 6 MNF picks

Week 6 of the 2025 NFL season wraps up Monday night with a big NFC showdown. The Chicago Bears, sitting at 2–2 and coming off their bye week, travel to Washington to take on the Commanders, now 3–2. This isn’t just another game; it’s the first rematch since Jayden Daniels’ unforgettable Hail Mary secured a win over Chicago last season. That was the start of a downward spiral for the Bears' season. Think of this as Caleb Williams vs Jayden Daniels part two, with the history, emotion and bragging rights all wrapped into one.

Kickoff is slated for 8:15 PM ET on ESPN and ABC. Both teams have flaws, but there’s enough firepower on each side to make this one feel like a prime-time classic. Let’s get into our Bears vs Commanders best bets for MNF.

Bears vs Commanders predictions

• Pick #1: Chicago Bears +4.5 over Washington Commanders (-110)
• Pick #2: Over 49.5 (-110)
• Pick #3: Rome Odunze Over 67.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Pick #1: Bears +4.5 over Commanders (-110)

After a full week of rest and preparation, the Bears come into this one in a strong spot. Head coach Ben Johnson has had two weeks to fine-tune the offense and game plan around his young stars. The offense had started to take a step forward before the bye, so it will be interesting to see if it continues. The offense has shown balance and explosion at times, particularly when Rome Odunze gets involved early. It was also a well-timed bye for the Bears, so they could get healthy on defense. The Bears get linebacker TJ Edwards and cornerback Kyler Gordon back from injury this week.

The Commanders have won three of their first five games of the season, but have not looked as sharp as last season. Jayden Daniels missed two games with an injury and the offense has been without star wide receiver Terry McLaurin for weeks. The defense has struggled at times, allowing at least 24 points in three of the five matchups.

Getting more than a field goal feels like solid value in a game that has all the makings of a close matchup. The Bears will have a sour taste in their mouths after what happened last season. They could win this outright, but even if they fall short, they’re fully capable of keeping it within four points.

Pick #2: Over 49.5 (-110)

This matchup features two of the most exciting young quarterbacks in the league and both have the weapons to turn this into a shootout. Williams and Daniels can hurt defenses in multiple ways. Caleb Williams and the Bears' offense have a multitude of weapons, which should cause a strain on the Commanders' defense.

Both teams rank in the bottom third of the league in pass defense and are both susceptible to the big play in the passing game. Add in two mobile quarterbacks, two aggressive offensive-minded coaches and defenses that haven’t consistently dominated, and the ingredients are there for a high-scoring affair. I see this as being a 31-27 type of game.

Pick #3: Rome Odunze Over 67.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Rome Odunze has quickly emerged as one of the league’s best young receivers and his chemistry with Caleb Williams continues to grow. Through four games, Odunze has consistently been a deep threat and reliable target, already logging three games over 60 receiving yards and scoring at least once in each game.

He now faces a Washington defense that has struggled to contain outside receivers. The Commanders have allowed 145 yards to Tre Tucker of the Raiders and 110 yards to Drake London of the Falcons in two of their last three games. Odunze’s combination of route-running, size and speed makes him a matchup nightmare, especially against both man and zone coverage. If this game plays out as expected, with both teams trading blows, Odunze should see plenty of targets, considering he has seen at least seven in each game this year.

All signs point to another big night for Chicago’s breakout receiver, and topping 67.5 yards feels very attainable given the expected game flow and defensive matchup.