BYU vs. UCF Prediction, CFB Week 8 Odds & Best Bets (10/24)

Fact checked at 7:20 AM ET, Oct 24, 2026

Odds as of 7:20 AM ET, Oct 24, 2026

No. 2 BYU (6-0, 3-0 Big 12) visits UCF (3-3, 1-2) at Acrisure Bounce House in Orlando for a 3:30 PM ET kickoff, a week after beating Notre Dame 28-24. The Cougars will again be without running back LJ Martin, last season's Big 12 Offensive Player of the Year, who is listed out on the Big 12 availability report. He got hurt after two carries at TCU on Oct. 3 and has missed both games since. Without him, BYU has scored 17, 24 and 28 points.

UCF is coming off a bye, and it's 3-0 at home and 0-3 on the road. Keyone Jenkins is expected to make his fifth straight start at quarterback while Alonza Barnett III, listed questionable, recovers from the hamstring injury he suffered at Pitt on Sept. 12. The market has moved toward the Knights. They opened as 9.5-point underdogs and are getting 7.5, and the total has dropped from 45.5 to 43.5.

We expect BYU's defense to keep this one low, Bear Bachmeier to carry a Martin-less offense through the air against a secondary that has allowed 200 passing yards to every FBS team it has played, and BYU to win by a touchdown or less. Think 24-17. The forecast for the kickoff window has temperatures around 80, a north-northeast wind near 15 mph and about a 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms.

BYU vs. UCF Predictions

• Pick #1: Under 43.5 (-110)
• Pick #2: UCF +7.5 (-118)
• Pick #3: Bear Bachmeier 200+ Passing Yards (-178)

PICK #1: Under 43.5 (-110)

Nobody has scored more than 24 points on BYU this season, and Notre Dame needed 49 pass attempts to get there last week. The Cougars allow 15.2 points and 86.2 rushing yards a game. UCF, with a backup quarterback starting, averages 192.7 passing yards and 162.2 rushing yards a game.

BYU's own offense has been more modest since Martin went down: 17 points at TCU, 24 against Iowa State, 28 against Notre Dame. Three of its five games against FBS teams finished under the closing total (Arizona, TCU and Iowa State). UCF managed 17 at Houston and 7 at Pitt.

At -110, the Under needs to hit 52.4% of the time. We think it's better than that. The total is already two points lower than where it opened, and a storm in the kickoff window would only slow things down further.

What could beat us is a UCF shootout. Its games against Georgia State and Oklahoma State produced 74 and 70 points. One defensive or special-teams touchdown would also be enough to push a 24-17 game over.

PICK #2: UCF +7.5 (-118)

BYU kept winning and the line still dropped two points. Without Martin, BYU has beaten TCU by 7, Iowa State by 14 and Notre Dame by 4, so two of those three margins came in under this number.

UCF has hung around even on the road. It led Houston 10-0 at halftime before losing 27-17, and it trailed Oklahoma State by three going into the fourth quarter before losing 42-28. At home the Knights beat TCU 21-13. BYU beat the same TCU team 17-10 in Fort Worth. UCF has had two weeks to prepare, and BYU is flying across the country after its biggest win of the year.

The -118 price implies 54.1%. In a game we expect to land in the low 40s, we'll take the half point above a touchdown.

The best argument against this pick is BYU's record: it has covered every game it has played this season. It also depends on Jenkins starting and taking care of the ball. UCF turned it over twice at Oklahoma State, and that game got away in the fourth quarter.

PICK #3: Bear Bachmeier 200+ Passing Yards (-178)

UCF's five FBS opponents threw for 212, 282, 310, 239 and 304 yards, and defensive back DJ Bell is listed out. Bachmeier went 21 of 25 for 289 yards against UCF last season.

He has thrown for 217, 227, 62, 329 and 224 yards in BYU's five games against FBS teams. The 62 came on a rainy night at TCU, when BYU ran 38 times and he went 11 of 24. With Martin out, more of the offense has gone through him: he threw 36 passes against Notre Dame and 30 against Iowa State, and the 329 he put up against Iowa State came in a 24-10 game, so a low score doesn't have to keep him under 200.

This isn't cheap. The -178 price implies a 64.0% chance. We're paying it because every FBS team UCF has faced has gone over 200 through the air.

Rain is the danger. The forecast carries a chance of storms, and the TCU game showed how BYU plays when the ball is wet. Bachmeier is also a runner, with 15 carries at TCU and 13 against Notre Dame, so some of his yards could come on the ground.

All three picks cash in something like a 24-17 BYU win with Bachmeier throwing for 200 or more.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.