Army vs. Tulsa Prediction, CFB Week 8 Odds & Best Bets (10/23)

Fact checked at 10:00 AM ET, Oct 23, 2026

Odds as of Oct 23, 9:57 AM ET

Army arrives at 4-2 and 3-1 in the American, winners of three straight conference games, and the Black Knights have rarely looked better than they did last Saturday in a 56-24 rout of Florida Atlantic. They ran for 479 yards and eight touchdowns, and quarterback Cale Hellums carried for 195 yards and five scores a week after his 223-yard day against Tulane. Army leads the country at 357.5 rushing yards per game. Tulsa is 4-3 and back in the win column after scoring the last 31 points of a 38-17 win at Rice. This is its third straight week against a run-first offense, and the first of them, Navy, ran for 386 yards in a 34-26 Tulsa loss.

Kickoff is Friday at 8:30 PM ET at H. A. Chapman Stadium in Tulsa. Tulsa is a 1.5-point favorite, right where the spread opened, while the total has climbed from 50.5 to 54.5 since Sunday. The National Weather Service calls for temperatures in the low 70s at kickoff, a 5 mph wind and no rain.

We expect this game to look like most Army games: long drives and a one-score finish. Last year's meeting fit that description, a 26-25 Tulsa win at West Point with 51 total points.

Army vs. Tulsa Predictions

• Pick #1: Army +1.5 (-110)
• Pick #2: Under 54.5 (-112)

PICK #1: Army +1.5 (-110)

Four of Army's five games against FBS opponents were decided by four points or fewer: wins of 21-17 at Temple and 20-17 over Tulane, and losses of 28-24 to South Florida and 31-29 at Louisiana Tech. Only Florida Atlantic got blown out. When a team plays that many coin flips, a point and a half is worth having, and at -110 the price implies a 52.4% chance.

The computer ratings lean Army anyway. The average of the models tracked by The Prediction Tracker has the Black Knights by 3.4 points, and ESPN's matchup predictor gives them a 51.3% chance to win outright. Hellums has run for 418 yards and seven touchdowns over the last two games, and he has plenty of help: fullback Jake Rendina, back Godspower Nwawuihe and slot backs Samari Howard and Zach Mundell all take handoffs and pitches. Tulsa has had trouble with quarterbacks who run. Navy's quarterback ran for 232 yards against it two weeks ago, and Rice's had 146 in the first half last week before Tulsa shut the Owls out after halftime.

Turnovers could undo all of it. Tulsa has forced 15 this season, sixth nationally, and hasn't turned the ball over in its last three games, and an Army offense built on long drives can't afford to give one away. Tulsa is also home for the first time since Oct. 1, and quarterback Baylor Hayes is coming off a 249-yard, three-touchdown game at Rice. Neither starting quarterback is formally confirmed, and the American publishes no availability report.

PICK #2: Under 54.5 (-112)

Most of the public is on the Over, with 80% of the bets and 88% of the money, and the total has climbed four points since Sunday. That is a big number for an Army game. Only two of Army's five FBS games cleared 54.5 (60 at Louisiana Tech and 80 against Florida Atlantic). The other three finished at 52, 38 and 37.

The Black Knights hold the ball for about 34 and a half minutes a game, and their defense has allowed nine first-half points per game against FBS teams. Four of their five FBS games had 21 or fewer combined points at halftime. If this one starts that slowly, there isn't much clock left for a shootout. The -112 price works out to a 52.8% break-even.

Tulsa's offense is what can beat this. All three of its games since Hayes returned from injury at the start of October went over this number (89 points against North Texas, 60 at Navy and 55 at Rice), and two of those came against run-first teams. He completed 20 of 27 passes at Rice. If Tulsa hits big plays early and Army has to chase, 55 points is reachable.

Both picks need the same game: Army keeping the ball, the clock running and the score close, something like 24-23 either way.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.