Air Force vs. Wyoming Prediction, CFB Week 8 Odds & Best Bets (10/23)

Fact checked at 10:06 AM ET, Oct 23, 2026

Odds as of Oct 23, 10:02 AM ET

Air Force (5-1, 3-1 Mountain West) brings the nation's No. 2 rushing offense to War Memorial Stadium in Laramie for a 9:00 PM ET kickoff against Wyoming (4-3, 3-1), with both teams in the thick of the Mountain West race. The Falcons look like a different team since Liam Szarka's season-ending injury. Evan Medders has started the last two games, Air Force has thrown four passes in that span, and it ran for 439 yards in a 28-7 win at Northern Illinois and 430 in a 41-31 win over UNLV.

History favors Wyoming. Air Force hasn't won in Laramie since 2012, and the Cowboys won the last meeting there 31-19 in 2024. Wyoming's best answer is quarterback Tyler Hughes, who ran for 183 yards and four touchdowns in last week's 41-23 win over Northern Illinois. But the Cowboys score 18.3 points a game and rank 101st in run defense, and that's a bad combination against a team that wants to keep the ball for 36 minutes.

Air Force vs. Wyoming Predictions

• Pick #1: Evan Medders Under 44.5 Passing Yards (-114)
• Pick #2: Air Force -5.5 (-110)

PICK #1: Evan Medders Under 44.5 Passing Yards (-114)

Medders didn't attempt a pass in his first start and threw for 18 yards on three attempts in his second. Across the whole season, including relief work, he's 5 of 10 for 65 yards. Air Force ranks last in the FBS in passing yards, and with Medders running for 114 yards against Northern Illinois and 152 against UNLV, the Falcons have had no reason to throw. Wyoming coach Jay Sawvel said this week that Air Force isn't "messing around with trying to throw the ball a lot right now."

Wyoming's run defense invites more of the same. It allows 172.1 rushing yards a game, and Central Michigan ran for 339 against it in a 24-10 Wyoming loss. The forecast in Laramie calls for a west-southwest wind around 15 mph at kickoff, another nudge toward the ground.

The danger is one play. A single play-action shot over a defense loaded up to stop the run could get Medders most of the way to 45 by itself, and all that running is exactly what sets up that kind of throw. At -114, the break-even sits at 53.3%. For a quarterback with 18 passing yards across two starts, behind a run game this effective, that's a number we're happy to lay.

PICK #2: Air Force -5.5 (-110)

Air Force needs to win by six or more, and the matchup points that way. Medders gives Wyoming a faster runner to chase, too. As Sawvel put it, "He's faster than Szarka." The Falcons have averaged 434.5 rushing yards in his two starts, they've run 431 plays this season without losing a fumble, and they hold the ball for 36 minutes, 22 seconds a game, second in the country.

Sawvel also pointed to a number that has tracked this series: in the last nine meetings, when Air Force strung together four or more drives of eight plays or more, Wyoming won only once. UNLV allowed five such drives last week. A Wyoming offense averaging 18.3 points a game doesn't get many possessions to answer with when that happens.

The models we track average Air Force by 7.9, and ESPN's matchup predictor gives the Falcons an 80.2% chance to win. The -110 price implies 52.4%.

Wyoming still has ways to win. Laramie has been a problem for Air Force for more than a decade, and Hughes can hurt any defense with his legs. Air Force linebacker Blake Fletcher, one of the country's leading tacklers, is questionable on the Mountain West's initial availability report. Medders is the expected starter but hasn't been formally named. If the Falcons control the clock the way they have the last two weeks, they should clear six points.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.