Grizzlies vs. Warriors Prediction, NBA Odds & Best Bets (10/23)

Fact checked at 10:04 AM ET, Oct 23, 2026

Odds as of Oct 23, 10:02 AM ET

Golden State opens at home without much of its roster. Jimmy Butler III and Moses Moody are out, Kristaps Porzingis is away from the team indefinitely, and Brandin Podziemski (back) and Charles Bassey (knee) are questionable. In Wednesday's 127-105 loss at the Lakers, Stephen Curry scored 23 points in 21 minutes, while Draymond Green handed out a team-high 8 assists and took four shots.

Memphis beat Utah 123-103 at home behind 45 points on 17-of-25 shooting from Ty Jerome. Cedric Coward (wrist) is doubtful after starting that game, and Isaiah Stewart (ankle) is questionable. Golden State is a 4.5-point favorite with a total of 237.5, and the Warriors play at Phoenix on Saturday.

Memphis visits Golden State on Friday, October 23, at 10:00 PM ET at Chase Center.

With this many Warriors out, Curry has to do the scoring and Green has to set it up. We're betting on that split holding.

Grizzlies vs. Warriors Predictions

• Pick #1: Stephen Curry Over 24.5 Points (-120)
• Pick #2: Draymond Green Under 7.5 Points (-107)

PICK #1: Stephen Curry Over 24.5 Points (-120)

Curry got to 25 in 26 of his 43 games last season and averaged 26.6. He then scored 35 in the play-in win at the Clippers and 17 in the loss at Phoenix that ended Golden State's season. With Butler, Moody and Porzingis out, the rest of tonight's scoring falls to young players and bench pieces.

The opener showed how much the offense leans on him: 23 points in 21 minutes, a pace well past this line, before he sat out the rest of a 22-point loss. At -120 the price implies 54.5%, a few points under the 60% he hit last season.

Minutes are what could sink it. Another lopsided game, either way, would shorten his night, and Golden State is on the front end of a back-to-back. A Podziemski return would also take some shots.

PICK #2: Draymond Green Under 7.5 Points (-107)

Green has nearly stopped shooting. Over his last seven games (the final four of the regular season, two play-in games and the opener) he took 24 shots and scored 7, 1, 2, 7, 7, 5 and 2. In the opener he went 1-of-4 for 2 points with 8 assists.

The market has noticed. His line sat between 8.5 and 10.5 in each of his last 10 games last season. Over the full season the number is close to a coin flip, 7 or fewer in 35 of 68 games with an 8.4 average. The split that matches this roster is sharper: in the 11 games he has played next to Curry since Butler tore his ACL in January, Green stayed at 7 or fewer 10 times, including 35 and 36 minutes in the two play-in games. The break-even at -107 is 51.7%.

Size is the worry. With Porzingis gone and Bassey questionable, the center group is Green, Al Horford and two-way big Graham Ike, and more time at the five means more looks at the rim. A close game could also push him past 30 minutes.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.