Rockets vs. Spurs Prediction, NBA Odds & Best Bets (10/23)

Fact checked at 10:01 AM ET, Oct 23, 2026

Odds as of Oct 23, 9:59 AM ET

Houston is 1-0 after a 128-110 win over Dallas on Wednesday. Kevin Durant and Jabari Smith Jr. scored 30 apiece, Alperen Sengun added 23 points and 10 rebounds, and a 38-12 second quarter, helped along by 21 Dallas turnovers, ended it early. San Antonio is 0-1 after a 116-104 home loss to Oklahoma City on Tuesday, when Victor Wembanyama made 1 of 13 shots and the Spurs shot 38.7% from the field and 10 of 37 from three. This is a Spurs home game played in Austin: it opens their I-35 Series at Moody Center, the first of three games they play there this season. Both teams play again Saturday, Houston at Atlanta and San Antonio at Dallas.

De'Aaron Fox is questionable with a right wrist sprain after playing 32 minutes in the opener, Keldon Johnson is questionable with a mouth laceration, and Tobias Harris (left calf) and Jayden Quaintance (right knee surgery) are out. Houston lists Steven Adams (right calf) and Reed Sheppard (left knee) as questionable.

San Antonio was a 7.5-point favorite on Oct 20 and is down to 5.5, with the moneyline at -205. The total was 225.5 on Oct 20, climbed to 227.5 and has come back down to 225.5, even with 87% of the bets on the Over. Tipoff is 9:30 PM ET Friday at Moody Center.

We see a half-court grind between two of last season's better defenses, with Houston's size and work on the offensive glass keeping it close. A 112-108 Spurs win is the kind of game both picks need.

Rockets vs. Spurs Predictions

• Pick #1: Rockets +5.5 (-118)
• Pick #2: Under 225.5 (-115)

PICK #1: Rockets +5.5 (-118)

Houston can make this ugly for San Antonio. The Rockets ranked sixth in defensive rating last season, allowing 113.2 points per 100 possessions, and led the league in offensive rebound rate at 34.8%. They grabbed 17 offensive boards against Dallas, five from Sengun and six from Amen Thompson. Fred VanVleet, who missed all of last season with a torn ACL, ran the offense in his return and handed out 11 assists.

San Antonio is still working out its three-guard lineup of Fox, Stephon Castle and Dylan Harper, and Houston is the bigger team. Fox's wrist puts one of those three in doubt. The spread has dropped two points since Oct 20, so the market has moved toward Houston too.

That -118 works out to a 54.1% chance. The worry is last season's series: the Spurs won three of four, all three by 11 or more, though Houston played that whole season without VanVleet. Wembanyama won't shoot 1 of 13 very often, and this is Houston's first road game.

PICK #2: Under 225.5 (-115)

Houston played at the second-slowest pace in the league last season, about 96 possessions a game, and San Antonio's defense allowed 111.3 points per 100 possessions, third-best in the league. Two of the four meetings last season finished well under this number, 111-106 and 111-99, and the Spurs scored 104 on 36-of-93 shooting in their opener.

Nearly nine in ten bets are on the Over, yet the total rose two points and then fell all the way back to 225.5.

You're paying -115, an implied 53.5%. What could beat it is San Antonio's offense, fourth-most efficient in the league last season. The other two meetings went over (121-110 and 145-120), and Houston scored 128 on Wednesday. If Wembanyama's shot comes back and both teams get hot from three, 226 arrives quickly.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.