5 Picks & 8 Leans for NFL Sunday Week 1

There are a number of big matchups on Sunday to get this season rolling. At OddsCrowd, our Analysts have taken a look at the slate and come up with our five best picks .We’ve also added a few ‘leans’ as well to have a nibble at. Make sure you don’t just follow our opinions though, take a look at the data to form your own opinions; check out our in-depth game previews which deliver algorithmic + EV picks, line movement trends, consensus stats and much more.

Here are our best picks for the opening Sunday and Monday games of the new NFL season:

Ravens @ Jets : Jets to Beat the Spread

Jets fans are preparing for another disappointing season, and it’s easy to see why. 

However, they do have three things going for them in the opener that makes us believe they can beat the spread. Firstly, they have improved their offensive ranks. Secondly have home-field advantage where they have a relatively solid record. And thirdly, they have beaten the spread (and won outright) in all three preseason games.

We’re not suggesting that they can get a win against the Ravens, but we think they can go close and give Baltimore a hard time. At best, they get the win or take the Ravens to the wire. At worst, they get within 6 and lose. Either way, we think it’s worthwhile taking them at +7.

Pick: Jets +7

Giants @ Titans: Giants at the Spread

The spread for this one is 5.5 and the Moneyline is firmly in Tennessee’s favor. 

The Giants are generally believed to be setting up for a lacklustre season and little is expected of them. But we are following the smart money here, with a money vs public split at 37% on the 5.5 Spread. 

Pick: Giants +5.5

Packers @ Vikings: Back the Over

At +/-1.5, the bookmakers think this could be won by less than a field goal either way, and we agree. If we had to pick a winner, we’d go for the Packers. But it’s far too close to call and we think there is a better option here.

The Packers will lean on their legendary QB once more as they look for a strong start to the season. But is he still going to be an scoring machine with all of the randomness going on in his life the last year? We struggle to see how. We think this will be a low scoring game, so we are going to be the Under. The OddsCrowd Algorithm also agrees sees a 3.5% +EV Edge on it when betting with PointsBet  (at the time of posting). 

Pick: Under 47

Chiefs @ Cardinals: Big Win and Points Total for the Chiefs

The Chiefs should have the W here, but the best bet is the Over 53.5. We just think line is too low for these offences. The OddsCrowd Algorithm, thinks so too with what it sees as a 4.4% +EV Edge when betting with Pointsbet (at the time of posting).

Pick: Over 53.5

Buccaneers @ Cowboys: The Buccs to Cover the Spread

Tom Brady’s ‘comeback’ game kicks off on Monday, with the Buccs facing off against the Cowboys. The books are struggling to pick a winner, and we’re struggling to see beyond the Buccs.

Don’t mind the chatter about his age and his relationship status, Brady is still too good. We need to wait for the data to show us otherwise. He has a strong offense to support him, and Tampa’s defense has proven to be just as capable. We think it’s going to be a big year for the Florida team, and they should hit the ground running with a win. The OddsCrowd Algoithm is seeing value too with a 3.5% +EV Edge at the time of writing with PointsBet (at the time of posting).

Pick: Buccaneers -2.5

Other Sunday and Monday Games

The predictions above are the ones we feel the strongest about, but there are some other d bets to make on the opening NFL weekend. All of the following games are played on Sunday, September 11:

• Eagles @ Lions: The Lions should have the best of it with Goff firing under center. Lions +3.5. 
• 49ers @ Bears: It’s hard to see where the points will come from here, so opt for the Under. Under 41.5.
• Patriots @ Dolphins: The Dolphins are the market leaders and will be desperate to get the W. The best bet is the Under, though, as it offers good value in what should be a hard-fought game. Under 46.5.
• Saints @ Falcons: There should be a lot of points in this one. Over 41.5.
• Browns @ Panthers: A close game that should go to Carolina. Panthers -1.5.
• Colts @ Texans: A cruise for the Colts. Colts -7.5.
• Raiders @ Chargers: The Chargers shouldn’t have an issue getting the W and covering the spread. Chargers -2.5.
• Colts @ Jaguars: Expect the Colts to hold off the Jags. Colts -2.5.

If you’re looking for value, consider adding a few of the above in a parlay, but remember, the more bets you add, the larger the Vig and the Risk.