49ers vs. Falcons Prediction, NFL Week 7 Odds & Best Bets (10/25)

Fact checked at 8:55 AM ET, Oct 25, 2026

Odds as of 8:03 AM ET, Oct 25, 2026

San Francisco (6-0) visits Atlanta (2-4) for a 1:00 PM ET kickoff at Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Fox), and the 49ers come without their top two receivers. Mike Evans (ribs, Achilles) and Deebo Samuel Sr. (hamstring) are ruled out, and so is Nick Bosa, who hasn't played since Week 2. San Francisco is also on a short week after a 23-17 Monday night win over Washington, and this is its first East Coast trip of the season. Atlanta lost 31-23 to Chicago last time out. It has ruled out linebacker Divine Deablo, slot corner Billy Bowman Jr. and backup running back Brian Robinson Jr., but cornerback A.J. Terrell is back from injured reserve.

The market has drifted toward Atlanta. San Francisco opened -4.5 and is down to -2.5 (-115), and its moneyline has gone from above -200 to -145. The total went the other way, from 47.5 to 50.5.

Atlanta's run defense is fourth in the league at 83.2 yards allowed a game, and we expect it to take the ground game away from Christian McCaffrey. That puts the game in Brock Purdy's hands against a pass defense that ranks 29th, while Atlanta gets to throw at a 49ers defense playing without Bosa. The points get past 50.5 and McCaffrey stays under his yardage line. Something like 30-24, indoors.

49ers vs. Falcons Predictions

• Pick #1: Christian McCaffrey Under 110.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-112)
• Pick #2: Over 50.5 (-108)

PICK #1: Christian McCaffrey Under 110.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-112)

McCaffrey hasn't run for more than 75 yards in a game this season, and he hasn't had more than 53 receiving yards either. Against this front, he'd need something close to a season high in both to clear 110.5.

Newest first, his totals are 117 against Washington, 83 at Seattle, 70 against Denver, 116 against Arizona, 66 against Miami and 88 against the Rams. Four of the six came in under. His rushing has ranged from 23 to 75 yards, and now he gets a Falcons defense that gives up the fourth-fewest rushing yards in the league.

The -112 price implies a 52.8% chance, and the matchup is why we're taking it. San Francisco's easiest yards are through the air against a defense allowing 268.7 passing yards a game. With George Kittle, Christian Kirk, Jordan Watkins and Brandin Cooks to throw to, Purdy doesn't have to force it to his running back.

Volume could sink this. Evans left the Washington game just before halftime, and McCaffrey finished that night with nine catches and 117 yards. If the 49ers make him the main target instead of spreading it around, the Under is in trouble. Kirk is back from injured reserve and in line for his first game of the season.

PICK #2: Over 50.5 (-108)

The total has climbed three points since it opened at 47.5, and the Over has drawn 60% of the money on 53% of the bets.

San Francisco scores 29.5 points a game, third in the league, and Atlanta allows 25.5. The Falcons' last three games produced 54, 53 and 69 points. If Atlanta's front stops the run, Purdy will be throwing against a secondary that has allowed the fourth-most passing yards in the league, and the Falcons get to attack a defense that has been without Bosa and safety Marques Sigle for weeks. It's played indoors, and the total counts overtime.

At -108 the Over implies 51.9%. The records push back some. The two teams' games have gone over 50.5 in 5 of 12, and San Francisco's have stayed under in 4 of 6 because its defense allows 18.3 points a game, fourth-fewest in the league.

The 49ers' offense is the problem. Their 29.5 points a game came with Evans in the lineup. If Kirk isn't ready for a full load and the new group doesn't click, San Francisco could bog down in the red zone and settle for field goals.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.