Vanderbilt vs. Mississippi State Prediction, CFB Week 10 Odds & Best Bets (11/7)
Fact checked at 9:03 AM ET, Nov 7, 2026
Odds as of 8:07 AM ET, Nov 7, 2026
Vanderbilt visits Mississippi State at 4:15 PM ET at Davis Wade Stadium in Starkville, and both teams arrive on long losing streaks. Vanderbilt is 3-5 and 0-5 in the SEC, five straight losses after a 3-0 start. Mississippi State is 4-4 and 2-4, four straight losses after a 4-0 start, and it's a 2.5-point favorite at home. Both of our picks come from the same place: Vanderbilt can't run the ball, so it throws. The Commodores average 106.1 rushing yards per game, 128th of 138 FBS teams, and Mississippi State gives up 261.5 passing yards per game, the most in the SEC. That leaves the game in the hands of freshman quarterback Jared Curtis, and enough of those throws should find Ja'Cory Thomas to clear a short number.
The Bulldogs are on their backups at quarterback. Kamario Taylor is out for the season after foot surgery, and Mississippi State scored three points total in the two games he didn't start. AJ Swann, who started 12 games for Vanderbilt over two earlier seasons, is likely to start against his old team, though coach Jeff Lebby hasn't named one. Vanderbilt comes in off a bye week.
Vanderbilt vs. Mississippi State Predictions
- Pick #1: Ja'Cory Thomas 25+ Receiving Yards (-161)
- Pick #2: Jared Curtis 220+ Passing Yards (-180)
PICK #1: Ja'Cory Thomas 25+ Receiving Yards (-161)
Since SEC play started, Thomas has looked like Vanderbilt's second receiver behind Junior Sherrill, and he has 25 or more receiving yards in four of five games: 18 at Auburn, 43 at Georgia, 60 against Ole Miss, 57 against Arkansas and 35 at Kentucky. His first month was a different story. A hamstring injury cost him time in camp, and he didn't catch a pass against Delaware or NC State. Over the full season, counting those two games and 17 yards against Austin Peay, an FCS team, he's at four of eight. We're betting on the role he has now, and he's listed as the starting Y receiver on the depth chart for this game.
He doesn't need Curtis to get his yards, either. Curtis missed the Georgia game, Blaze Berlowitz took most of the snaps, and Thomas still caught two for 43. He has three catches in four of his five SEC games, and three catches against this pass defense should be enough. At -161, the line puts it at 61.7%.
Volume can still sink it. Sherrill is the top target, and Thomas hasn't caught more than three passes in any game this season, so there's not much room if a ball or two goes elsewhere. Mississippi State also had five sacks against Texas, and a pass rush that gets home keeps the throws short.
PICK #2: Jared Curtis 220+ Passing Yards (-180)
At Kentucky, Vanderbilt ran 17 times for 15 yards, and Curtis completed 27 of 36 passes for 247 yards. That's how this offense has worked in conference play. He has thrown 30 or more passes in all four SEC games he's played, and Kentucky was his third straight game over 220, after 222 against Ole Miss and 274 against Arkansas. He missed the Georgia game with an injury from the Auburn game, but he's listed first at quarterback on the depth chart and isn't on the latest SEC availability report.
The streak looks better than the full season. Against FBS teams, he has 220 or more in four of six games, with 210 against Delaware and 199 at Auburn the misses, and he averages 238.2 yards in those six. He threw for 60 on nine attempts against Austin Peay, an FCS team, in the opener. Four of six is 66.7%, and -180 implies 64.3%, so the record alone is barely ahead of the price. The matchup is what makes us like it. No SEC defense has allowed more passing yards per game than Mississippi State, and Vanderbilt has no running game to fall back on.
Turnovers and sacks are the danger. Curtis has eight touchdown passes and eight interceptions, and he's been sacked 14 times in seven games. Both picks also assume he starts, as expected.
21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
