Utah vs. Iowa State Prediction, CFB Week 4 Odds & Picks (9/26)

Fact checked at 6:48 AM ET, Sep 26, 2026

Odds as of Sep 25, 5:42 PM ET

No. 15 Utah hasn't been close to losing. The Utes are 3-0 straight up and against the spread after beating Idaho 66-14, Arkansas 43-10 and Utah State 33-0. They've allowed 24 points all season, sixth-fewest in the country, while scoring 47.3 a game, ninth.

Iowa State (2-1) opens Big 12 play after a 55-7 rout of Bowling Green, when Aiden Flora ran for 194 yards. A week earlier the Cyclones lost 16-13 at Iowa and managed only 255 yards of offense. They score 35.3 points a game (tied for 52nd) and have allowed 33 (tied for 13th).

The line has moved toward the home underdog. Utah opened -11.5 on Sep 20 and is now -8 (-108), with Iowa State +8 (-115) and the moneyline at Utah -340, Iowa State +270. The total opened at 49.5 and is down to 47.5 (over -114, under -108).

Friday night's Big 12 availability report rules out five Cyclones: cornerback Jaheim Singletary, who was carted off against Bowling Green, receiver Ray Coffey, and defensive tackles Trey Verdon, Daniel Howard and Ka'Mori Moore. Linebacker Rylan Barnes is doubtful. Utah has safety Marcus Wimberley, tight end Kana'i Lopes and offensive lineman Isaiah Garcia out, and nobody listed as questionable.

Kickoff is at 3:30 PM ET at Jack Trice Stadium in Ames, on FOX. The National Weather Service expects showers and possibly a thunderstorm before noon, then scattered showers through the afternoon, with a southeast wind around 10 mph and temperatures near 60 at kickoff.

Utah vs. Iowa State Predictions

• Pick #1: Under 47.5 (-108)
• Pick #2: Wayshawn Parker Anytime Touchdown (-155)
• Pick #3: Aiden Flora Anytime Touchdown (-105)

PICK #1: Under 47.5 (-108)

Rain is coming to Ames, and the total has already dropped two points. The National Weather Service expects showers and possibly a thunderstorm before noon, with a quarter to half an inch of rain on the day, and Iowa State has closed its grass parking lots. The heaviest rain should pass before kickoff, but it isn't expected to clear out. Shower chances are around 25-30% at kickoff and climb to 40-55% by the fourth quarter, with temperatures near 60. The wind, southeast at about 10 mph, won't matter much. A wet field and a wet ball will, and both favor running the ball and keeping the clock moving.

The total opened at 49.5 on Sep 20 and is now 47.5 (-108), and 48 is still available at some books. The -108 price implies a 51.9% chance. The public is on the same side, with 74% of the bets on the Under, though only 65% of the money.

Utah's defense and Iowa State's passing game back it up. Utah has allowed 24 points in three games, sixth-fewest in the country, and shut out Utah State last week. Iowa State scored 13 points and threw for 117 yards in its only Power Four game, at Iowa, and averages 151.3 passing yards a game. Four of these teams' six games have gone under the closing total, including Utah's last two: 53 points against a 55.5 total versus Arkansas and 33 against 55.5 versus Utah State.

Utah's offense could still get there almost by itself. The Utes average 47.3 points, ninth nationally, and Iowa State put 55 on Bowling Green last week, well over that game's 43.5 total. But all of Utah's big scores came at home, not on the road in the rain.

A 24-20 game would cash this and still leave room for both touchdown picks.

PICK #2: Wayshawn Parker Anytime Touchdown (-155)

Parker has six touchdowns in three games, and three of them came in Utah's one Power Four game. You pay for that here, since -155 implies a 60.8% chance.

Against Idaho he ran 12 times for 71 yards and a 21-yard touchdown and caught three passes for 23 yards and two more scores. Against Arkansas he ran 10 times for 53 yards with touchdowns of 1 and 9 yards, then added five catches for 65 yards and a 7-yard score. Utah State held him to 10 carries for 30 yards and two catches, with no touchdowns.

Braden Pegan, Flora and Vince Benetti have also scored in two of three games, but Parker has the most touches of the four (32 carries and 10 catches). He scored three times against Arkansas, where Pegan caught three passes for 32 yards and didn't score. Flora had 19 carries and no touchdowns at Iowa, and Benetti has scored twice on four catches all season. Utah's red-zone work has mostly gone to Parker and quarterback Devon Dampier, who has two rushing touchdowns of his own.

Last week didn't go his way. Parker had his quietest game against Utah State, and Utah spread the ball around: Daniel Bray's 63-yard run and Byrd Ficklin's 9-yard run accounted for two of Utah's four touchdowns, and Pegan caught the other two. Iowa State has allowed only 33 points in three games (tied for 13th) and held Bowling Green to a touchdown and Southeast Missouri State to 10, though it will be without three defensive tackles on Saturday. The price already treats Parker as Utah's likeliest scorer.

Pegan's touchdown at +145 is the alternative on the Utah side. We left it off because it depends on the same Utah drives as Parker's.

PICK #3: Aiden Flora Anytime Touchdown (-105)

When Iowa State's offense works, it usually runs through Flora. He carried seven times for 45 yards and an 11-yard touchdown against Southeast Missouri State. Against Bowling Green he ran 12 times for 194 yards, scored on runs of 61 and 42 yards, and returned a punt 66 yards for a third touchdown. At -105 the price implies a 51.2% chance.

He's also the Cyclones' punt returner, which gives him an extra way to score. Quarterback Jaylen Raynor's two rushing touchdowns both came against Southeast Missouri State, and Arnold Barnes III's two both came against Bowling Green, so Flora is the only Iowa State player who has run for a touchdown against more than one opponent.

Iowa is what gives us pause. It was his only game against a Power Four defense, and he finished with 19 carries for 89 yards and no touchdowns as Iowa State scored 13 points. Utah's defense is the best he has seen by a wide margin, with 24 points allowed in three games and a shutout of Utah State last week. A repeat of the Iowa game is a real possibility.

If you'd rather take the points, Iowa State +8 (-115) is the alternative. The line has moved 3.5 points toward the Cyclones since it opened, with 60% of the spread money on them from 50% of the bets. A 24-20 game would cover both Flora's touchdown and the Under.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.