UCLA vs. Minnesota Prediction, CFB Week 10 Odds & Best Bets (11/7)

Fact checked at 9:04 AM ET, Nov 7, 2026

Odds as of 8:07 AM ET, Nov 7, 2026

No. 8 UCLA (8-0, 5-0 Big Ten) visits Minnesota (5-3, 3-2) at 12:00 PM ET in Minneapolis. UCLA is a 4-point favorite and the total is 38.5, down from an opening 42.5. The Gophers beat Iowa 13-10 two weeks ago and lost 23-16 in overtime at Indiana last week.

Expect a grind, with UCLA in control on the ground. The Bruins allow 13.4 points a game, and Minnesota hasn't scored more than 20 in any of its last four games. Since Nico Iamaleava was lost for the season at Oregon, UCLA has scored 17, 28 and 27 points, and Wayne Knight has kept finishing its drives. Minnesota will move the ball in short gains to Javon Tracy, but it hasn't been turning those catches into points. Ty Dieffenbach and Drake Lindsey are both on track to start at quarterback. The forecast is mostly sunny and in the mid-40s with a light wind.

UCLA vs. Minnesota Predictions

• Pick #1: Under 38.5 (-108)
• Pick #2: Wayne Knight Anytime Touchdown (-155)
• Pick #3: Javon Tracy 40+ Receiving Yards (-194)

PICK #1: Under 38.5 (-108)

The best unit on the field is UCLA's defense. The Bruins allow 13.4 points a game, tied for fifth-fewest in FBS, and they have 26 takeaways: 16 interceptions and 10 fumble recoveries. Their last three opponents scored 7, 10 and 0. Minnesota has scored 20, 13, 13 and 16 in its last four games, starting center Ashton Beers is out for the season, and tight ends Pierce Walsh and Julian Johnson are both doubtful on the latest Big Ten report.

UCLA's offense isn't built to run up a total either. It rushes for 219.5 yards a game, and Dieffenbach has thrown for 264, 198 and 178 in his three starts. Those games finished 17-7, 28-10 and 27-0. UCLA's last four games, starting with the 17-15 win at Oregon, all stayed under this number.

At -108 the Under implies a 51.9% chance. The total opened at 42.5 and has been bet down four points, and 72% of the money on the total is on the Under, from 63% of the bets.

What gives us pause is Minnesota's own record. Only two of its seven against FBS teams stayed under 38.5, and the Indiana game reached 39 only because it went to overtime, which counts here. A UCLA defensive score or a short field off a turnover could also add a touchdown neither offense earned.

PICK #2: Wayne Knight Anytime Touchdown (-155)

Knight has scored in all eight UCLA games, and nothing about the quarterback change slowed him down. He has 12 rushing touchdowns and two receiving, and he scored in each of Dieffenbach's three starts: on the ground against Wisconsin and Michigan State, and on a catch against Nevada. UCLA has 25 rushing touchdowns as a team, and Knight has 12 of them.

In a low-scoring game that role matters more. If UCLA scores only two or three touchdowns, it will likely get them by running, and that has meant Knight all season. Minus-155 implies a 60.8% chance for a back who has scored in every game.

UCLA settling for field goals sinks it, and so does Dieffenbach or another back taking the short carries. Dieffenbach ran one in against Nevada. Knight also had his quietest rushing game, 23 yards on 13 carries, in the 17-7 win over Wisconsin, though he still scored.

PICK #3: Javon Tracy 40+ Receiving Yards (-194)

When Minnesota moves the ball, it goes to Tracy. His 460 receiving yards lead the team, on 46 catches. He has reached 40 yards in seven of eight games, and in six of seven against FBS teams: 51 against Mississippi State, 91 against Akron, 41 at Washington, 75 at Purdue, 45 against Iowa and 40 at Indiana. The only miss was 19 against Michigan.

His share of the throws shouldn't shrink. Walsh and Johnson are doubtful, and wide receiver Hayden Moore is out. Tracy caught seven passes in each of the last two games, both one-score games, which is the kind of game this should be. He averaged about six yards a catch in those two games, so he gets there on volume whether or not the drive ends in points.

Minus-194 implies 66.0%, a steep price, and the margin has been thin: 40 and 41 yards in two of those games. UCLA allows 173.5 passing yards a game. This pick also depends on Lindsey starting, as expected.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.