UCF vs. Kansas Prediction, CFB Week 10 Odds & Best Bets (11/7)

Fact checked at 9:05 AM ET, Nov 7, 2026

Odds as of 8:07 AM ET, Nov 7, 2026

UCF (4-4, 2-3 Big 12) visits Kansas (3-5, 1-4) at 3:45 PM ET at David Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium in Lawrence. Kansas is a 3.5-point favorite (-112) and the total is 48.5, with 71% of the spread money on UCF on 51% of the bets. Both teams are expected to go with their preferred quarterbacks. Keyone Jenkins is out for UCF after hurting his ankle in the 41-9 loss to Baylor, and Scott Frost said Alonza Barnett III, who missed five games with a hamstring injury, will start. Isaiah Marshall sat out the 22-16 loss at TCU with a lower-leg injury, was upgraded to probable and isn't listed on the latest Big 12 report. Reports have him starting, though that isn't official.

This game runs through the two lead backs. Utah and Kansas State both ran all over Kansas, which is good news for Duke Watson. Dylan Edwards, Kansas's workhorse, has been a steady part of the passing game whenever Marshall has started. Each pick needs the same afternoon: a close game with Marshall under center. The forecast is dry, around 57 degrees with a light wind.

UCF vs. Kansas Predictions

• Pick #1: Dylan Edwards 15+ Receiving Yards (-158)
• Pick #2: Duke Watson 50+ Rushing Yards (-116)

PICK #1: Dylan Edwards 15+ Receiving Yards (-158)

In every game Marshall has started, Edwards has reached 15 receiving yards: 34 against FCS Long Island, 18 against Missouri, 16 against Arizona State, 30 against Middle Tennessee, 29 at Utah, 28 at Kansas State and 15 against Baylor. He missed once, with 8 yards at TCU, and Cole Ballard started that game. That's seven of eight overall and six of seven against FBS teams.

Kansas keeps feeding him. With Jalen Dupree out, Edwards carried 30 times against Baylor and 20 at TCU. He leads the team with 573 rushing yards on 125 carries and has 19 catches for 178 yards. Marshall is coming back from a lower-leg injury and is likely short on practice time, so a quick throw to his back is an easy way to get comfortable.

You pay for that record. At -158 the bet carries a 61.2% implied probability, and Edwards hasn't cleared the number by much in some games: 15, 16 and 18 yards. He's had one catch in three of his eight games. UCF is also missing three defensive backs (DJ Bell, Demari Henderson and Kahmel Johnson), and Kansas showed at TCU it will throw outside when the matchup is there, with Cam Pickett and Nahzae Cox combining for 15 catches and 258 yards. If Ballard starts instead of Marshall, the case falls apart.

PICK #2: Duke Watson 50+ Rushing Yards (-116)

Utah ran for 287 yards against Kansas. Kansas State ran for 359. Watson leads UCF with 597 rushing yards on 92 carries, 6.5 a carry, and he's reached 50 in six of eight games: 110 against FCS Bethune-Cookman, 177 against Georgia State, 57 against TCU, 50 at Houston, 79 at Oklahoma State and 94 against BYU. That's five of seven against FBS teams, against a price that implies 53.7%.

The two misses show what has to go right. He ran six times for 10 yards in the 12-7 loss at Pittsburgh, the game in which Barnett hurt his hamstring, and seven times for 20 in the 41-9 loss to Baylor. A game within a score should keep UCF handing off. Barnett is making his first start since the second game of the season, and the offensive line is without Tyler Gibson, with Jacob Maiava questionable, so the run game is the most reliable thing UCF has.

Carries are the catch. His have ranged from six to 21, and Taevion Swint, listed as probable, takes some of the work. UCF is also 0-3 on the road, scoring 7, 17 and 28 points. If UCF falls behind early, the handoffs dry up the way they did against Baylor.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.