Timberwolves vs. Heat Prediction, NBA Odds & Best Bets (10/21)

Fact checked at 7:47 AM ET, Oct 21, 2026

Odds as of Oct 21, 7:46 AM ET

Giannis Antetokounmpo plays his first regular-season game for Miami on Wednesday, after 13 seasons with the Milwaukee Bucks. He isn't the only debut. Minnesota traded for LaMelo Ball and signed Jonathan Kuminga, and Ball debuts next to Anthony Edwards. Klay Thompson, Tim Hardaway Jr. and Bobby Portis also play their first games for a Miami team that lost Norman Powell, Tyler Herro, Jaime Jaquez Jr. and Kel'el Ware from last season's rotation. Tip-off is 7:30 PM ET at Kaseya Center.

Miami is a 1.5-point favorite (-122 on the moneyline), and the total is 242.5. Minnesota has Donte DiVincenzo out, and Miami lists two-way center Vladislav Goldin as questionable. Bam Adebayo sat out Miami's last two exhibitions with groin tightness, but he is not on the injury report.

The Heat are expected to start Davion Mitchell, Thompson, Andrew Wiggins, Antetokounmpo and Adebayo, the same five who started the first two preseason games. Miami played at the fastest pace in the league last season, and Erik Spoelstra said Tuesday he wants more of it: "the pace, the habit of doing that, we'll continue to build it." That is the game we're betting on. If the Heat run and their starters play full minutes in a close game, the two holdovers on the wing and at the point should get their points.

Timberwolves vs. Heat Predictions

• Pick #1: Andrew Wiggins Over 13.5 Points (-102)
• Pick #2: Davion Mitchell Over 8.5 Points (-122)

PICK #1: Andrew Wiggins Over 13.5 Points (-102)

Wiggins scored at a high clip in the preseason, and the price still leans toward the Under. He started all four of his preseason appearances and put up 12, 13, 19 and 13 points in 13, 15, 22 and 15 minutes. That's 57 points in 65 minutes on 20-of-33 shooting. In the two games he shared the floor with both Antetokounmpo and Adebayo, he scored 12 in 13 minutes against Toronto and 13 in 15 against New Orleans, so Giannis hasn't squeezed him out of the offense.

Last season he averaged 15.4 points in 30.3 minutes and topped 13.5 in 39 of his 68 games, roughly 57 percent of the time. A -102 price only asks for 50.5 percent. Yes, three of his four preseason games stayed under this number, but he never played 23 minutes in any of them. Give him last season's minutes at his preseason scoring rate and he clears 14 comfortably.

What could sink it is a crowded offense. Antetokounmpo, Adebayo and Thompson all want shots, and a blowout in either direction would put the starters on the bench early.

PICK #2: Davion Mitchell Over 8.5 Points (-122)

Mitchell is expected to start at point guard again, and he's the one pushing the ball for a team that wants to run. He started all four of his preseason appearances and scored 3, 9, 13 and 7 points in 13, 20, 24 and 15 minutes. Thirty-two points in 72 minutes is a better scoring rate than he had last season.

He averaged 9.3 points in 28.6 minutes last season and went over 8.5 in 41 of 70 games, about 59 percent, then closed with 12, 9, 15 and 12 in his last four regular-season games. At -122 the implied chance is 55 percent. That's a thin edge on the full-season number alone; the preseason rate is what makes it worth playing. Spoelstra is still his coach, and the offense is still built to run.

The worry is volume. Antetokounmpo and Thompson take shots that used to go to Powell and Herro, and in the half court Mitchell will often be the fourth or fifth option, so he needs points early in the clock. Wiggins needs that same game, which makes these two picks correlated: both cash if Miami's starters run and play their usual minutes.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.