Texas vs. Tennessee Prediction, CFB Week 4 Odds & Picks (9/26)

Fact checked at 6:48 AM ET, Sep 26, 2026

Odds as of Sep 25, 5:30 PM ET

Texas and Tennessee haven't played since 1969. They meet in Knoxville as unbeaten teams, with the Longhorns ranked No. 1 and the Volunteers No. 14.

Texas has one big win so far, and it was close: 24-23 over Ohio State on Sep 12, a game that stayed under 50.5. The other two were a 59-7 rout of Texas State and a 30-6 win over UTSA as a 30-point favorite. Tennessee has scored 143 points, 47.7 a game (tied for 7th nationally). Its one Power Four test was a 45-24 win at Georgia Tech that covered 11.5, while the wins over Furman and Kennesaw State fell short of big spreads.

The line has been drifting toward the home team. Texas was a 6.5-point favorite on the summer lookahead line and opened -7 this week. The consensus is now Texas -4.5 (-114) and Tennessee +4.5 (-106), with the moneyline at Texas -198, Tennessee +164. The total opened at 56.5 and is down to 54.5.

Texas running back Hollywood Smothers was the week's biggest injury question. He was added to the report as questionable on Wednesday, then upgraded to probable on Friday night's SEC availability report, and he's expected to play. Texas has ruled out tight end Nick Townsend, defensive lineman Justus Terry, defensive back Xavier Filsaime and offensive lineman Jordan Coleman. For Tennessee, Nathan Robinson and Javin Gordon are still questionable, and safety Dylan Lewis is out.

Kickoff is at 12:00 PM ET at Neyland Stadium on ABC. The forecast is sunny and in the mid-70s at kickoff, with a light north wind.

Texas vs. Tennessee Predictions

• Pick #1: DeSean Bishop Anytime Touchdown (-130)
• Pick #2: Ryan Wingo Anytime Touchdown (+120)
• Pick #3: Under 54.5 (-108)

PICK #1: DeSean Bishop Anytime Touchdown (-130)

Bishop has scored in all three of Tennessee's games, which is why the price is steep. At -130 it implies a 56.5% chance.

He ran 14 times for 97 yards and a 1-yard touchdown against Furman. At Georgia Tech, a road game and Tennessee's only Power Four opponent so far, he had his best day: 20 carries, 147 yards and touchdowns of 17 and 29 yards. He scored from 3 yards out against Kennesaw State and finished with nine carries for 42 yards after leaving in the second quarter with a lower-body injury. He has also caught a pass in each of the last two games. Bishop isn't on the SEC availability report, and Josh Heupel says he'll be fully ready.

Daune Morris, Braylon Staley and quarterback Faizon Brandon have each scored in two of three games too. Morris and Staley were both held out of the end zone by Furman, and Brandon's three rushing touchdowns came against Furman and Kennesaw State, none at Georgia Tech.

The backfield is still a committee. After Bishop left the Kennesaw State game, Morris (14 carries, 116 yards, a touchdown) and Hunter Barnes (seven carries, 63 yards, a touchdown) both outgained him, and Brandon can finish drives himself. Texas has allowed 36 points all season, 17th nationally, and held Ohio State to 23 and UTSA to six. The market already has Bishop as Tennessee's likeliest scorer, so there's no discount. What you're paying for is a lead back who has scored every week, including at Georgia Tech, the game that looked most like this one.

PICK #2: Ryan Wingo Anytime Touchdown (+120)

Texas has played one ranked team this season, and Wingo scored against it. Arch Manning found him from 3 yards out in the fourth quarter against Ohio State, part of a four-catch, 22-yard day. He also caught seven passes for 121 yards and an 8-yard touchdown against Texas State, then two for 22 yards against UTSA without scoring. The +120 price works out to a 45.5% chance.

Cam Coleman is the obvious alternative. He has four touchdowns, two against Texas State and two against UTSA, but he caught four passes and didn't score against Ohio State. That game is the best preview of Saturday, and Wingo was the one who got in.

The Texas passing game hasn't been sharp in its two lowest-scoring games. Manning threw for 195 yards on 37 attempts against Ohio State and 161 on 32 against UTSA, and the Longhorns' 37.7 points a game rank tied for 42nd. Tennessee has allowed 42 points in three games, 26th nationally, so it hasn't been leaking scores. Smothers is the main risk to this pick. He ran for two 1-yard touchdowns against Ohio State and caught a 13-yard score against Texas State, and after Friday night's upgrade he's expected to play and get red-zone touches.

Still, Wingo is the receiver Texas went to in its hardest game, and you're getting a plus price.

PICK #3: Under 54.5 (-108)

Texas's last two games both went under. The Ohio State game finished with 47 points against a 50.5 total, and the UTSA game finished with 36 against 58. Texas has allowed 36 points all season, 17th nationally, and held Ohio State to 23.

The market has come around too. The total opened at 56.5 and is now 54.5 (-108), and some books have 55, the better number for the Under. Bettors lean that way as well, with 65% of the money on the Under from 62% of the bets, and -108 implies 51.9%. Don't expect help from the weather, which calls for sun, a light breeze and no rain.

Tennessee's offense could still break it. It scores 47.7 a game, tied for 7th nationally, and put up 45 at Georgia Tech in a game that went over 55.5. Four of these teams' six games have gone under, but two of Tennessee's unders came against Furman and Kennesaw State, which says little about how it will fare against Texas.

We took the Under over the Tennessee side because the Bishop pick already leans on Tennessee's offense, and the Under doesn't need Tennessee to score more. Both touchdown picks fit under this number: a 27-24 game totals 51.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.