Texas vs. Missouri Prediction, CFB Week 10 Odds & Best Bets (11/7)

Fact checked at 9:02 AM ET, Nov 7, 2026

Odds as of 8:07 AM ET, Nov 7, 2026

Texas visits Missouri at 12:00 PM ET at Memorial Stadium in Columbia, with both teams 6-2 and 3-2 in the SEC. Texas is No. 7 in the College Football Playoff rankings and Missouri is No. 18. Texas is a 2.5-point road favorite, and the total of 42.5 comes down to the two run defenses: Missouri allows 98.3 rushing yards a game and Texas 102.4, third and fourth in the SEC. Texas couldn't rely on its ground game even if it wanted to. It averages 3.6 yards a carry, top back Hollywood Smothers is out, and left tackle Trevor Goosby hasn't played since the first quarter against Ole Miss. This sets up a low-scoring game in which most of the yards come through the air, and that points to Missouri's top receiver and Texas's quarterback.

Arch Manning and Austin Simmons are both in line to start, and neither is on the SEC availability report. It should be dry and mostly sunny in the mid-50s with almost no wind, which suits both passing games.

Texas vs. Missouri Predictions

• Pick #1: Cayden Lee 60+ Receiving Yards (-199)
• Pick #2: Arch Manning 190+ Passing Yards (-186)

PICK #1: Cayden Lee 60+ Receiving Yards (-199)

Start with the 31-3 loss at Ole Miss. Missouri scored three points, and Lee still caught five passes for 62 yards. He doesn't need a shootout, and if Missouri's run game stalls against Texas, even more of the offense goes his way.

He leads the SEC with 756 receiving yards and has reached 60 in seven of eight games: 89, 120, 47, 156, 110, 94, 62 and 78. The only miss was 47 against Troy in a 27-17 win. Against SEC defenses he's five for five. At -199 you're paying for a 66.6% chance, which isn't cheap, but seven of eight clears it.

The Texas pass rush is what could get in the way. Star edge rusher Colin Simmons is questionable after missing the last two games with an ankle injury. The secondary looks close to full strength, with cornerbacks Kade Phillips and Graceson Littleton upgraded to probable on the latest report.

PICK #2: Arch Manning 190+ Passing Yards (-186)

Texas has had to throw since Goosby went down early against Ole Miss. Manning put up 212 in that game, then 220 on 16-of-20 passing against Mississippi State, when Texas ran for 60 yards as a team. Missouri's pass rush has also cooled: 18 sacks through six games, one in the last two.

Over the full season he has 190 or more in six of eight games: 305, 195, 161, 201, 260, 173, 212 and 220. The misses were 161 in a 30-6 win over UTSA and 173 against Florida on 20 attempts. Tight games haven't cut into his yardage. He threw for 195 in the 24-23 win over Ohio State and 201 in the 20-17 win at Tennessee. The -186 price implies 65.0%, below that six-of-eight rate.

Cam Coleman is questionable with a shoulder injury, and there isn't much optimism he plays. Ryan Wingo was upgraded to probable. Both left the Mississippi State game, and Manning still got to 220 with Emmett Mosley catching 98 yards. Protection is the other problem, since Manning has been sacked 24 times. Still, Texas has little choice but to put the ball in the air.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.