Texas A&M vs. LSU Prediction, CFB Week 4 Odds & Picks (9/26)

Fact checked at 6:48 AM ET, Sep 26, 2026

Odds as of Sep 25, 5:54 PM ET

Both teams come into Tiger Stadium after losing last week. No. 23 Texas A&M lost 31-21 at home to Kentucky as a 16.5-point favorite, and Marcel Reed needed 49 passes to get 236 yards, with two interceptions. No. 10 LSU lost 32-24 at Ole Miss as a 2.5-point favorite, and Sam Leavitt threw for just 158 yards. The first two weeks went better for both. A&M beat Missouri State 50-0 and Arizona State 48-20, and LSU beat Clemson 51-10 and Louisiana Tech 45-14.

A&M has won the last two meetings, 49-25 in Baton Rouge last October as a 2.5-point favorite and 38-23 at home the year before. All five of the listed meetings went over the total.

The line has moved a lot since it opened. LSU was a 3-point favorite on Sep 13 and is now -8.5 (-110), with Texas A&M +8.5 (-110) and the moneyline at LSU -350, A&M +275. The total has fallen six points, from 57.5 to 51.5 (over -115, under -108). The public is on LSU and the Over, with 77% of moneyline tickets on the Tigers and 71% of total tickets on the Over.

Both teams are missing a pass-catcher who matters. A&M's Terry Bussey is out for the season with a lower-body injury from the Kentucky game, running back Jamarion Morrow was downgraded to doubtful on Friday's report, and receiver Ashton Bethel-Roman is still questionable. LSU tight end Trey'Dez Green, the team's leader in receiving yards, is out with a knee injury. LSU cornerback Ja'Keem Jackson was upgraded from doubtful to questionable, and safety Tamarcus Cooley, questionable earlier in the week, is off the report. Kickoff is Saturday at 7:30 PM ET on ABC, with temperatures in the low-to-mid 80s, partly cloudy skies and no rain in the forecast.

Texas A&M vs. LSU Predictions

• Pick #1: Under 51.5 (-108)
• Pick #2: Winston Watkins Jr. Anytime Touchdown (-110)
• Pick #3: Isaiah Horton Anytime Touchdown (+215)

PICK #1: Under 51.5 (-108)

A six-point drop in a total is a big move, and this one happened with most bettors on the other side. The total opened at 57.5 on Sep 13 and is now 51.5 (-108) across the major books, even though 71% of the tickets and 69% of the money are on the Over. Some books still have 52.5, the better number if you can find it. At -108 the Under needs to win 51.9% of the time.

Last week's games back it up. LSU and Ole Miss combined for 56 points against a 58.5 total, and LSU managed 24 with one touchdown pass. A&M and Kentucky did go over the game-day total of 50.5, but the Aggies scored only 21 and Reed threw 49 times to get there. Neither offense has been elite by the numbers. A&M averages 39.7 points (tied for 32nd nationally) and LSU 40.0 (tied for 28th), and LSU is now without Green.

The history is the problem. All five listed meetings went over, including 74 points in Baton Rouge last year. Neither defense has been dominant, either: A&M has allowed 51 points (tied for 40th) and LSU 56 (tied for 50th). LSU can also score without much of a passing game, since Leavitt has six rushing touchdowns and Dilin Jones has three.

This fits with both touchdown picks, since a 31-17 game has room for both scores and stays under 51.5. We chose it over LSU -8.5, which has a similar case (the spread has moved 5.5 points) but would rise and fall with Watkins' touchdown below.

PICK #2: Winston Watkins Jr. Anytime Touchdown (-110)

Watkins has scored in the two LSU games that looked most like this one. He caught seven passes for 110 yards and a 32-yard touchdown against Clemson, and three for 54 yards and a 26-yard touchdown in the third quarter at Ole Miss. In between, against Louisiana Tech, he caught five for 43 yards and didn't score. At -110 the price implies a 52.4% chance.

Green's injury should help him. The tight end led LSU with 222 receiving yards, and those targets have to go somewhere. Watkins is the obvious place.

Several A&M players also have touchdowns in two of three games, but their résumés are thinner. Mario Craver and Isaiah Horton both scored against Missouri State and Arizona State and were shut out by Kentucky, the Aggies' only SEC opponent. Carsyn Baker's two touchdowns came on 10 carries all season.

LSU's touchdowns have mostly come from elsewhere, though. Leavitt has six rushing touchdowns and Jones has three, and both are priced shorter than -200, which is why neither made this card. LSU has thrown exactly one touchdown pass in each game, and Watkins' catches have gone from seven to five to three. A&M has allowed 51 points (tied for 40th), and its two pick-sixes against Arizona State show the secondary can make plays.

PICK #3: Isaiah Horton Anytime Touchdown (+215)

Horton has caught three of Reed's six touchdown passes, and +215 implies only a 31.7% chance he adds another. That's a generous price for the Aggies' leading touchdown receiver.

He caught four passes for 76 yards and a 15-yard touchdown against Missouri State, then three for 33 yards and two scores (4 and 13 yards) against Arizona State. Kentucky held him to five catches for 61 yards and no touchdowns. He has faced two Power Four defenses and scored twice against one of them.

The targets should be there. Craver, A&M's leading receiver with 19 catches (11 of them against Kentucky), has two touchdowns. Bussey got hurt on the opening kickoff against Kentucky and is out for the season, and more of the targets went to Horton and Craver after he left. Craver caught a career-high 11 passes for 119 yards in that game. If Bethel-Roman, who is questionable, also sits, Horton and Craver should see even more of the ball, but we're not counting on that.

The Kentucky game is the worry. It's the closest thing to what A&M will see on Saturday, and Horton didn't score while Reed threw two interceptions. LSU has allowed 56 points (tied for 50th), but it held Clemson to 10 and Louisiana Tech to 14 at home, and Cooley is off the injury report.

Craver's touchdown at +170 is a close alternative on the A&M side, and LSU -8.5 (-110) is the option if you'd rather bet the side. Horton's score and the Under can both win: a 31-17 game has room for it.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.