SMU vs Florida State Picks 9/7

SMU vs Florida State Picks 9/7

No. 19 SMU opens its season Monday night with an immediate ACC road test against Florida State at Doak Campbell Stadium. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30 PM ET on ESPN.

Florida State already has a game under its belt, beating New Mexico State 34-17, but the performance left plenty of concerns. The Seminoles were still in a one-score game late in the third quarter, struggled to generate consistent pressure and had issues protecting quarterback Ashton Daniels.

SMU brings a veteran quarterback, a deeper passing game and a track record of winning ACC games. I trust the Mustangs more in a close matchup.

SMU vs Florida State Predictions

Pick #1: SMU Mustangs -2.5 over Florida State Seminoles (-115)

Pick #2: Over 54.5 (-110)

Pick #3: Duce Robinson 70+ Receiving Yards (-105)

PICK #1: SMU -2.5 over Florida State (-115)

Florida State having game reps should be an advantage, but what we saw against New Mexico State did not inspire much confidence. The Seminoles allowed nearly 300 passing yards, missed nine tackles and struggled to consistently affect the quarterback.

SMU senior quarterback Kevin Jennings has already proven he can win big games, leading the Mustangs to a 2024 College Football Playoff appearance and a 2026 Holiday Bowl victory over Arizona. 

SMU is 14-2 in ACC play since joining the conference, and Jennings has shown he can operate effectively even when less than 100%. He is dangerous with his legs, but his passing ability is still underrated.

SMU also brings back an experienced offensive line, including a strong left side, and added Cal transfer Kendrick Raphael to lead the backfield.

Florida State's defensive line graded poorly in its opener, and the Seminoles now have to contain a quarterback capable of extending plays and punishing bad pursuit angles.

Daniels was pressured 10 times on 32 dropbacks against New Mexico State, and Florida State has legitimate concerns along its offensive line. SMU should generate more heat than the Aggies did.

The Mustangs are starting their season here, but teams making their debut against opponents coming off Week 0 have historically performed well against the spread.

Give me the more proven quarterback and the program that has consistently delivered in ACC play.

PICK #2: Over 54.5 (-110)

Florida State's defense showed vulnerabilities immediately. New Mexico State moved the ball through the air, and the Seminoles failed to create the kind of havoc expected against an inferior opponent.

Jennings has the mobility to punish an undisciplined rush, and SMU has enough talent at receiver to exploit a Florida State secondary that surrendered several explosive completions in Week 0.

Ousmane Kromah was the biggest positive from the opener, rushing for 115 yards and a touchdown while averaging more than six yards after first contact. He created much of that production despite inconsistent blocking.

Daniels also gives the Seminoles another runner who can escape pressure and extend drives.

Rain could encourage both teams to lean more heavily on their rushing attacks, but that does not automatically mean an Under. Both quarterbacks can run, and missed tackles on a wet field can quickly become explosive plays.

SMU should reach the high 20s or low 30s, and I expect Florida State to do enough offensively to push the total past 54.5.

PICK #3: Duce Robinson 70+ Receiving Yards (-105)

Robinson's 50-yard opener does not concern me. Florida State simply did not need to force-feed him against New Mexico State.

The 6-foot-6 receiver was one of the most consistent producers in ACC play last season. He cleared 70 receiving yards against Virginia, Miami, Stanford, Wake Forest, Clemson, Virginia Tech and NC State, missing the mark in only one conference game against Pittsburgh.

His ceiling was significant, too, with performances of 147 yards against Virginia, 148 against Wake Forest and 134 against Virginia Tech.

In his limited starting experience, Daniels has often leaned heavily on his first read, and Robinson is the obvious player to feature when Florida State needs a play through the air.

If Florida State is chasing points in the second half, Robinson should see enough targets to clear 70 yards.