Fact checked at 9:18 AM ET, Nov 14, 2026Odds as of 7:27 AM ET, Nov 14, 2026
The Pistons (8-3) visit the Heat (6-6) at Kaseya Center for an 8:00 PM ET tip, and the schedule tilts this one toward Detroit. Miami beat Cleveland 133-121 at home last night behind 37 points apiece from Bam Adebayo and Giannis Antetokounmpo, so the Heat are on the second night of a back-to-back. Detroit sat last night out after Cade Cunningham's 52 points carried a 144-140 double-overtime win at Washington.
Detroit is without Jalen Duren (right hamstring strain), who got hurt when these teams met here in a 128-111 Pistons win, and Isaiah Joe (right hip contusion). Miami had not filed its injury report on the latest league update. Klay Thompson (ankle) and Pelle Larsson (illness) both missed last night's game.
We like the rested, better team to win by more than a bucket, with Ausar Thompson doing the work on the glass that has kept Detroit winning without Duren.
Pistons vs. Heat Predictions
Pick #1Detroit Pistons -4.5−114
Detroit outscores teams by 7.7 points a game, and Miami gets outscored by 2.9. That is a 10.6-point gap in scoring margin, and the Pistons have won by five or more in 7 of their 11 games. They're 5-1 on the road.
Then add the legs. Adebayo logged 38 minutes last night and Davion Mitchell 39, and Miami turns around in less than 24 hours while Detroit got a full night off after its double-overtime game. The Heat are also just 2-3 at home, with losses by 25, 17 and 4. The 17 was to this Detroit team.
The -114 price implies 53.3%. The Heat have won three straight and score 117.2 points a game, seventh in the league, and Adebayo and Antetokounmpo are a load for a Detroit frontcourt without Duren. That's where Detroit's defense, seventh-fewest at 107.8 points allowed a game, has to hold. If Klay Thompson or Larsson returns, it helps Miami, but we'd still lay the points.
Pick #2Ausar Thompson Over 17.5 Points + Rebounds−102
With Duren out, Thompson has been cleaning the glass. In the eight games since Duren went down, he has averaged 19.9 points plus rebounds and cleared 17.5 five times, four of them in his last five. He averages 8.7 rebounds and has grabbed 11 or more in three of his last five starts.
Miami helps him here. The Heat play one of the fastest paces in the league and allow 120.1 points a game, 26th of 30, which means more possessions and more missed shots to chase. At -102 the book is asking for 50.5%, about a coin flip, on a number he keeps beating.
What could go wrong is his minutes. His one miss in the last five came in 28 minutes, and he played only 19 in the first meeting here, finishing with 7 points plus rebounds. He also logged 43 minutes two nights ago. He is a projected starter, not a confirmed one.
21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
