Phillies vs. Braves Prediction, MLB Wild Card Game 3 Odds & Best Bets (10/1)

Fact checked at 8:17 AM ET, Oct 1, 2026

Odds as of Oct 1, 7:42 AM ET

The Phillies (88-74) and Braves (94-68) play one game Thursday, and the winner goes to the Division Series against the Dodgers. Third-seeded Atlanta won Game 1 of the best-of-three Wild Card Series 5-3. Sixth-seeded Philadelphia evened it Wednesday, 4-3 in 10 innings: Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper homered in the eighth, and Alec Bohm won it with a homer in the 10th.

Nobody has named a starter. On Monday, Phillies interim manager Don Mattingly said Aaron Nola was setting up for Game 3. After Game 2 it was "all hands on deck," with Zack Wheeler an option on short rest after his 97 pitches Sunday. Atlanta hopes to get at least four innings from Grant Holmes, but hasn't said whether he starts or follows a left-handed opener, either Ray Kerr or Brent Suter.

The market has it close to even. The consensus is Phillies -115, Braves -103, with the total at 7.5 (Over -100, Under -120) and Atlanta +1.5 at -178. Those numbers went up Wednesday night at -115 and -105 with the same total, and they've barely moved. With both pitching plans up in the air, we went with three hitter props, each built on how the player has been used lately.

First pitch is 8:00 PM ET Thursday at Truist Park in Atlanta, on NBC and Peacock. The National Weather Service expects a dry night, about 79 degrees at first pitch with a light wind.

Phillies vs. Braves Predictions

• Pick #1: Brandon Marsh Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-165)
• Pick #2: Ozzie Albies Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-155)
• Pick #3: Ronald Acuña Jr. Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-116)

PICK #1: Brandon Marsh Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-165)

Marsh hasn't been getting a full night of at-bats, and this bet only loses if he produces two of anything.

His last five starts were Sept. 23, 25, 26 and 27, then Game 2. He finished with 0, 0, 1, 1 and 1 in hits plus runs plus RBIs, under this line every time, and went 2-for-11 with no runs and one RBI in just 15 trips to the plate. The reason is his role. Marsh hits left-handed and batted sixth or seventh in all five. He didn't start Game 1 against lefty Chris Sale, though he did single as a pinch hitter in the ninth. In three of the five starts, Bryan De La Cruz took over his spot in the order. That includes Game 2, when Marsh got three plate appearances in a 10-inning game.

Atlanta's pitching plan gives Mattingly plenty of reason to do it again. Both possible openers are left-handed, and Braves manager Walt Weiss calls Dylan Lee "our high-leverage lefty." Holmes, a righty, is the pitcher Marsh would be in there to face, and Holmes may be neither the first nor the last arm Marsh sees.

Two things could go wrong. First, the Phillies haven't posted a lineup, so Marsh's spot is a projection. If he sits against an opener, check whether your book voids the bet or keeps it live for a pinch-hit at-bat. Second, Edmundo Sosa left Game 2 with a right leg injury, and his status is unclear ("We'll see where he's at tomorrow," Mattingly said). Without Sosa, Derek Hill or De La Cruz starts in the outfield next to Marsh. If it's De La Cruz, the guy who's been replacing Marsh is already in the game, and Marsh could bat four or five times. One hit plus a run or an RBI is enough to beat it, and -165 implies a 62.3% chance. Justin Crawford Over 0.5 Hits (-148) was the other Phillies prop we considered after he hit safely in four of his last five starts. An Over needs the at-bats a lefty opener could take away, though, and Marsh's Under doesn't.

PICK #2: Ozzie Albies Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-155)

Albies had one big night in Game 1. In his other four starts, he gave this bet nothing to sweat.

Most recent first, his last five starts went 1, 4, 0, 0 and 0. That's under in Game 2 and in all three games of the season-ending series at Miami, and he was 2-for-15 overall. Where he hits matters as much as how. He batted third in Game 2 and came up five times. He hit sixth in Game 1 and sixth or seventh in two of the three Miami games, and he's projected sixth again, behind Mauricio Dubón.

He's also facing the staff that struck out 1,577 hitters this season, the most in baseball, and most of it is available for one game. Game 1 starter Jesús Luzardo and Andrew Painter, who won Game 2 with three scoreless innings, both said they could pitch. Wheeler is expected to come out of the bullpen if he doesn't start.

Game 1 is the warning. Albies tripled in a run, walked and scored twice, good for four. He's reached base five times in the series without striking out. One of those three zeros at Miami is also a little soft, since he left the Sept. 27 finale after two plate appearances. The Phillies' bullpen isn't whole, either. Closer Jhoan Duran gave up three runs in Game 1 and wasn't available for Game 2, and Mattingly would only say they'll see where he is Thursday. Atlanta hasn't posted a lineup, and if Albies goes back to third he could get an extra plate appearance. At -155 (60.8%), you're laying a steep price. This pick and the Acuña pick both need Philadelphia's pitchers to keep Atlanta quiet, so expect them to win or lose together.

PICK #3: Ronald Acuña Jr. Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-116)

Acuña is 0-for-15 over his last four games, and this Under costs barely more than even money.

He left a Sept. 22 game with a left shin contusion, then came back two days later with two hits and a run against Cincinnati. Since then he's 0-for-4 and 0-for-5 at Miami, 0-for-3 in Game 1 and 0-for-3 in Game 2. His hits plus runs plus RBIs across those five starts: 3, 0, 0, 0, 1. That's under four times, with no RBIs in any of them. He gets the same strikeout-heavy Phillies staff as Albies, and he fanned twice in Game 2.

What works against this pick is volume. Acuña led off Game 2 and hit second in the other four, so he came to the plate four or five times every night, and he's projected second again. Game 2 also showed how he can get close to two without a hit. He walked twice, stole two bases and scored, so one single on top of that and the Under is gone. The Phillies' starter matters more here than in the other two picks. Nola had a 4.67 ERA over 175.1 innings this season, Wheeler a 3.00 over 162, and Philadelphia hasn't said which one goes first. Atlanta's lineup isn't out yet either.

The price is the draw. At -116 (53.7%), with the Over at -114, the market has this close to a coin flip, while the first two picks cost a good deal more. Under 0.5 Hits (+182) and Under 1.5 Total Bases (-175) would have won on the same four nights, and either works as an alternative; we picked the combined prop over them. All three picks fit the tight, one- and two-run games this series has given us so far (5-3 and 4-3), but only the two Braves props lean on the same pitchers.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.