Oregon vs. Ohio State Prediction, CFB Week 10 Odds & Best Bets (11/7)

Fact checked at 9:05 AM ET, Nov 7, 2026

Odds as of 8:06 AM ET, Nov 7, 2026

No. 23 Oregon (5-3) visits No. 12 Ohio State (6-2) at 3:30 PM ET at Ohio Stadium in Columbus, and neither team has the quarterback it planned on. Oregon lost Dante Moore to a concussion in its win at USC, and Dan Lanning has said he doesn't expect him back this season, so Dylan Raiola is the expected starter. Ohio State's Julian Sayin hurt his throwing arm at Indiana, and true freshman Luke Fahey is expected to make his second start after a 30-18 loss at USC. Ohio State is a 7.5-point favorite and the total is 45.5.

This one should come down to Ohio State's defense. It allows 15.5 points a game, and Oregon arrives without its leading rusher, Jordon Davison, or two of its offensive linemen. Fahey doesn't have to win a shootout. A Buckeyes win built on the run game and field position, something like 27-13, covers the spread and stays under the total. The forecast at kickoff is low 50s and cloudy with a northwest wind around 10 mph.

Oregon vs. Ohio State Predictions

• Pick #1: Under 45.5 (-113)
• Pick #2: Ohio State -7.5 (-111)

PICK #1: Under 45.5 (-113)

Oregon hasn't scored much since Moore went down. In four full games without him, the Ducks put up 15 against UCLA, 17 against Nebraska, 10 at Illinois and 34 against Northwestern, and three of those games finished with 32 total points or fewer. They turned it over seven times against UCLA and gained 242 yards against Nebraska. Now they go on the road without Davison and two linemen to face a defense that hasn't given up more than 30 points all season.

Ohio State's offense has dried up too. Sayin got hurt in a 19-15 win at Indiana, and in Fahey's first start the Buckeyes reached the end zone once and kicked four field goals. Bo Jackson ran for 121 yards in that game, and with a freshman making his second start, Ryan Day has every reason to keep handing Jackson the ball and running clock.

At -113, the Under implies a 53.1% chance. The best case for the Over is Ohio Stadium itself: all four Buckeyes home games went over this number, but Sayin played in every one, against Ball State, Kent State, Illinois and Maryland. Raiola also threw for 336 yards and three touchdowns against Northwestern, and another game like that breaks the total. Most of the money on the total sits on the Under: 72% of it, from 59% of the bets.

PICK #2: Ohio State -7.5 (-111)

Oregon outgained Illinois 426-314 and still lost 21-10, missing three of four field goal tries. That's the Oregon likely to show up in Columbus, and it lets Ohio State get past 7.5 without a big day from its quarterback. Oregon is 3-5 against the spread, and its three losses came by eight at Oklahoma State, two to UCLA and 11 at Illinois.

Fahey's debut looked better than the final score. He went 21 of 38 for 260 yards with a touchdown and no interceptions, and Ohio State ran for 204 yards. The Buckeyes also drew 11 penalties. Clean some of that up at home and the defense should carry the margin. Ohio State has won its four home games by 53, 56, 23 and 29, though all of those came with Sayin. The spread money is on Ohio State too: 68% of it, from 59% of the bets. At -111, you need Ohio State to cover 52.6% of the time.

A mistake from a freshman making his second start would hurt most. If Oregon's pass rush forces a turnover or two, the Ducks can stay inside the number even without scoring much. Both picks expect Raiola and Fahey to start, as reported.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.