Ole Miss vs. Florida Prediction, CFB Week 4 Odds & Best Bets (9/26)

Fact checked at 6:48 AM ET, Sep 26, 2026

Odds as of Sep 25, 5:42 PM ET

No. 4 Ole Miss is 3-0, but the Rebels haven't made it look easy. They got past Louisville 41-38, then beat LSU 32-24 as a 2.5-point home underdog, with Trinidad Chambliss throwing for 363 yards and running in the clinching score himself. They're 1-2 against the spread, having failed to cover as a 7-point favorite against Louisville and as a 45.5-point favorite against Charlotte.

No. 21 Florida (3-0, 2-1 ATS) has been louder. The Gators score 54 points a game, second in the country, after putting 66 on Florida Atlantic, 52 on Campbell and 44 on Auburn in a 44-39 road win. Jadan Baugh carried the Auburn game with 26 carries for 162 yards and three touchdowns.

Bettors have been moving toward the home team all week. Florida opened as a 1.5-point favorite on Sep 20, and the consensus now has the Gators -3.5 (-105) and Ole Miss +3.5 (-115), with Florida -165 on the moneyline and Ole Miss +140. The total opened at 57.5 and sits at 58.5 (over -118, under -110).

The injury news leans the same way. Ole Miss running back Kewan Lacy hurt his left shoulder against LSU and was downgraded from questionable to doubtful on Friday night's SEC availability report. The Rebels have also ruled out nine players, five of them defensive backs. Florida's only listed player is receiver Eric Singleton Jr., questionable with an ankle injury. These teams split the last two meetings, and the home team won both. Kickoff is Saturday at 3:30 PM ET at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium in Gainesville, on ABC.

Ole Miss vs. Florida Predictions

• Pick #1: Florida Moneyline (-165)
• Pick #2: Deuce Alexander Anytime Touchdown (+125)
• Pick #3: Trinidad Chambliss Anytime Touchdown (+130)

PICK #1: Florida Moneyline (-165)

This is mostly a bet on the Florida offense, with the betting market as backup. The Gators have scored 162 points in three games, 54 a game, second among 138 FBS teams. Baugh already has eight rushing touchdowns (three against Florida Atlantic, two against Campbell, three at Auburn), and Aaron Philo has thrown for 275, 242 and 204 yards. Florida's one Power Four test was on the road, and it scored 44.

The money agrees. Florida has moved from -1.5 to -3.5, and the bigger bets are driving it: 52% of the spread handle is on Florida from only 38% of the tickets, and on the moneyline Florida has 66% of the money from 48% of the bets. Most spread tickets (61%) are on Ole Miss, so the larger bettors have gone the other way from the public.

At -165 the price implies a 62.3% chance. Take out the bookmaker's margin and the market has Florida at 59.9%, so this isn't a bargain. You're paying for the better offense playing at home.

Ole Miss does have the better résumé. It's the higher-ranked team, it beat LSU as an underdog, and it got past Louisville. The defense is the problem: 71 points allowed in three games, tied for 78th nationally. Now nine players are out, five in the secondary plus two linebackers and two offensive linemen, and Lacy is doubtful. The pick doesn't depend on any of those absences, but none of them help the Rebels. The recent series has gone to the home team: Ole Miss won 34-24 in Oxford last November, and Florida won 24-17 in Gainesville the year before.

If you'd rather lay the points, Florida -3.5 (-105) makes the same case, and at least one book has it at -104.

PICK #2: Deuce Alexander Anytime Touchdown (+125)

Alexander has been Chambliss's top target all season. His 20 catches lead the team, and he has scored in both of Ole Miss's games against Power Four opponents. He caught five passes for 159 yards against Louisville, including two 62-yard touchdowns, and seven for 60 yards with a 20-yard score against LSU, where he also had a carry. The one game he didn't score was the 41-9 win over Charlotte, and he still caught eight passes for 76 yards that day.

At +125 the book gives him a 44.4% chance. Several Florida players have also scored in two of three games (Duke Clark, Dallas Wilson, Aaron Philo and Vernell Brown III), but Florida has played only one Power Four team. At Auburn, Clark and Wilson scored once each and Philo and Brown didn't. Alexander has done it twice against Power Four defenses.

The question is what the Ole Miss offense looks like if Lacy can't go. He has four rushing touchdowns and has scored in every game. If he sits, Makhi Frazier and JT Lindsey are next up at running back, and Chambliss and the passing game may carry more of the load. If he plays, he'll get the goal-line work. We aren't counting on either outcome. Florida has allowed 63 points (tied for 62nd) and gave up 39 at Auburn, so there should be room to score.

This works alongside the Florida moneyline. A 38-31 Florida win still leaves room for four Ole Miss touchdowns.

PICK #3: Trinidad Chambliss Anytime Touchdown (+130)

Chambliss has thrown seven touchdown passes (three, two and two), but none of them count here. This bet is about how often Ole Miss lets him run, and so far that depends on the opponent. Against Louisville he ran nine times for 60 yards and scored from 5 yards out. Against LSU he ran nine times for just 2 yards, but one of those carries was the 14-yard touchdown that put the game away. In the Charlotte blowout he carried three times for 2 yards and didn't score.

So when Ole Miss plays a Power Four team, he gets about nine carries and has found the end zone both times. At +130 that needs to happen 43.5% of the time. It's also why we took Chambliss instead of a second Florida scorer: a touchdown by Clark or Wilson would mostly move with the Florida moneyline, and Chambliss's doesn't.

Nine carries isn't much, though. A quarterback's rushing touchdowns come from a handful of designed runs and scrambles, and with Lacy doubtful, Ole Miss may not want its quarterback taking extra hits. Florida's defense held Campbell to 3 points and Florida Atlantic to 21 before Auburn scored 39.

This bet and Alexander's both need Ole Miss in the end zone, so they share some risk. Both fit inside a Florida win, and Chambliss and Alexander have both scored in the same game twice this season.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.