Oklahoma vs. Florida Prediction, CFB Week 10 Odds & Best Bets (11/7)

Fact checked at 9:15 AM ET, Nov 7, 2026

Odds as of 8:07 AM ET, Nov 7, 2026

Oklahoma visits Florida at 7:45 PM ET at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium in Gainesville. The Sooners are 4-4 and have alternated wins and losses all season; the Gators are 5-3. After a 42-25 home loss to South Carolina, Brent Venables fired offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle this week and handed the play sheet to tight ends coach Jason Witten, who has never been a college offensive coordinator. Florida is a 5.5-point favorite. Oklahoma figures to spend a good part of the night throwing to keep up, and John Mateer and Isaiah Sategna should pile up yards doing it.

Mateer is expected to start, according to reports late in the week and Florida's own game notes, though Venables said early in the week that everything was on the table. Both picks need him under center. He'll face a Florida pass defense that gave up 340 passing yards at Missouri, 298 to Ole Miss and 279 to South Carolina, and the Gainesville forecast for tonight is dry with little wind.

Oklahoma vs. Florida Predictions

• Pick #1: John Mateer 170+ Passing Yards (-183)
• Pick #2: Isaiah Sategna 50+ Receiving Yards (-122)

PICK #1: John Mateer 170+ Passing Yards (-183)

Losing hasn't cut into Mateer's passing yards. He threw 33 times in a 17-10 loss at Michigan and 43 times against South Carolina, when the offense was stuck through three quarters, and cleared 170 both times. As a road underdog against a Florida team that can score, Oklahoma should be throwing late instead of running out the clock.

He has reached 170 in seven of eight games: 225 against UTEP, 189 at Michigan, 238 against New Mexico, 231 at Georgia, 270 against Kentucky, 283 at Mississippi State and 244 against South Carolina. The one miss was 155 against Texas, a 27-24 win in which Oklahoma didn't turn the ball over and he threw only 26 passes.

At -183 you're paying for a 64.7% chance, and seven of eight is well above that. Witten could run the ball more in his first game calling plays. Oklahoma's offensive line is also short-handed, with Ryan Fodje and Fred Hinton out and Eddy Pierre-Louis doubtful on the SEC availability report, and Mateer has thrown seven interceptions. A quick hook would sink the bet, but the reported plan is to stay with him.

PICK #2: Isaiah Sategna 50+ Receiving Yards (-122)

A -122 price implies a 55.0% chance, and Sategna has reached 50 receiving yards in six of eight games. He has 45 catches for 591 yards this season, with 76, 101, 81, 64, 83 and 164 in the games he got there. The 164 came on eight catches at Mississippi State, and he has had eight catches in three games.

He has had two duds: two catches for 9 yards at Michigan, and four for 13 against South Carolina, the game where Ivan Carreon caught five for 88 and both touchdowns. Witten coached the tight ends before taking over, and Rocky Beers already leads SEC tight ends at 55.8 receiving yards per game, so a game plan built around them could eat into Sategna's share. Like the first pick, this one needs Mateer to start.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.