Oklahoma State vs. Kansas State Prediction, CFB Week 10 Odds & Best Bets (11/7)

Fact checked at 9:05 AM ET, Nov 7, 2026

Odds as of 8:07 AM ET, Nov 7, 2026

Oklahoma State (5-3, 3-2 Big 12) visits Kansas State (4-4, 1-4 Big 12) at Bill Snyder Family Stadium in Manhattan, with kickoff at 1:00 PM ET. The Cowboys are 6.5-point favorites with the total at 62.5, and three-quarters of the spread bets are on them. Kansas State is starting its fourth quarterback in four games: Blake Barnett is expected to make his first career start after throwing for 224 yards and three touchdowns off the bench in a 27-24 overtime loss at Colorado.

Our angle is the Oklahoma State passing game. Drew Mestemaker has thrown for 300 or more yards in seven straight games, in routs and in losses alike, and both Kansas State beat writers we read pick the Cowboys to score 40 or more. Both picks need Mestemaker playing like he has all season, with Justin Bowick finishing drives. The kickoff forecast is sunny and in the low 50s with a light wind, so the weather shouldn't slow anyone down.

Oklahoma State vs. Kansas State Predictions

• Pick #1: Drew Mestemaker 280+ Passing Yards (-171)
• Pick #2: Justin Bowick Anytime Touchdown (-140)

PICK #1: Drew Mestemaker 280+ Passing Yards (-171)

Mestemaker hasn't thrown for fewer than 300 yards since the opener. The run reads 317 against Oregon, 324 against FCS Murray State, 389 at West Virginia, 304 against UCF, 365 at Houston, 386 against Colorado and 323 at Iowa State. His only game under 280 was that opener, 241 yards in a 24-10 loss at Tulsa, so he has cleared this number in six of seven games against FBS teams. The score hasn't mattered much: 389 came in a 41-24 win, 386 in a 57-24 rout and 365 in a three-point loss.

Kansas State's pass defense is the sticking point. The Wildcats allow 151.9 passing yards per game, seventh nationally, and rank fifth in the Big 12 with 2.4 sacks per game. Part of that is who has been throwing at them. No opponent in Kansas State's last five games attempted more than 31 passes, and Houston's 242 yards was the high. Mestemaker has averaged more than 33 attempts over his last five, Oklahoma State leads the country with 44 passing plays of 20 or more yards, and Kansas State ranks 79th in plays of 20-plus allowed. Safety Koy Beasley is listed as doubtful on the latest conference availability report. Even Kansas State coach Collin Klein said "(Mestemaker) is as good a quarterback as there is in the country."

The price, -171, implies a 63.1% chance, and his record, against a defense that hasn't seen this kind of volume, should clear it. What could sink it is Kansas State's running game, 205.5 yards per game, shortening the afternoon and cutting Oklahoma State's possessions. Mestemaker isn't on the availability report, and every sign points to him starting.

PICK #2: Justin Bowick Anytime Touchdown (-140)

Bowick has a touchdown catch in six straight games and has scored in seven of eight this season. The only blank was against Oregon. He caught two at Iowa State on a 124-yard day and one against Colorado on 138 yards, and against FBS teams he has scored in six of seven.

He averages 91.4 receiving yards per game, 18th in FBS, and Oklahoma State's 26 passing touchdowns are the most in school history through eight games. Kansas State gives up big plays, and Bowick is the receiver who makes them: 17.7 yards a catch at Iowa State, 27.6 against Colorado. Minus-140 translates to 58.3%, well under what he has done.

He isn't the only option near the goal line. Wyatt Young has a touchdown catch in seven straight games, and Caleb Hawkins runs for 113.3 yards a game. And this one, like the yardage pick, needs Mestemaker at his usual level against a pass defense that looks stingy on paper.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.