Ohio State vs. USC Prediction, CFB Week 9 Odds & Best Bets (10/31)

Fact checked at 9:41 AM ET, Oct 31, 2026

Odds as of 8:15 AM ET, Oct 31, 2026

No. 2 Ohio State (6-1, 4-0 Big Ten) visits USC (6-2, 3-2) at 7:30 PM ET at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum on NBC. We expect a slow, low-scoring game in the rain with both teams leaning on the run, so we're taking the Under and USC's lead back.

Julian Sayin is out with a throwing-arm injury, and Ohio State is planning to go forward without him through the postseason. Ryan Day hasn't named a starter. Luke Fahey, a true freshman who has thrown 13 passes this season, is reported as the expected starter, and Day has said both he and Tavien St. Clair could play. Ohio State opened -7 and is -6.5 (-111). The National Weather Service forecast has rain likely at kickoff and a 90% chance after dark, with wind around 5 mph.

Ohio State vs. USC Predictions

• Pick #1: Under 51.5 (-115)
• Pick #2: King Miller 50+ Rushing Yards (-188)

PICK #1: Under 51.5 (-115)

No opponent has scored more than 24 on Ohio State, which allows 13.4 points a game. USC comes in off a 24-7 loss at Wisconsin with minus-18 rushing yards and five sacks allowed. USC is also without offensive lineman Hayden Treter and wide receivers Terrell Anderson and Corey Simms, and tight end Mark Bowman is questionable.

Ohio State's offense has its own problems. Fahey is 9-of-13 for 203 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions, and this would be his first start, on the road in the rain. Running back Ja'Kobi Jackson, the team's second-leading rusher, is out too. Even with Sayin for most of the game, Ohio State scored 19 and ran for 78 yards in its 19-15 win at Indiana. The total opened at 52.5, so it has come down only a point, and -115 implies 53.5%.

The risk is that both teams have played in higher-scoring games. Four of Ohio State's seven and five of USC's eight went over this number, though Ohio State's came with Sayin. Jeremiah Smith has 984 receiving yards and 12 touchdowns, USC allows 25.0 points a game, and a freshman's turnover could hand USC a short field. Ohio State also has three safeties out and nickel Jay Timmons doubtful, which gives Jayden Maiava, the Big Ten leader at 287.9 passing yards a game, some room.

PICK #2: King Miller 50+ Rushing Yards (-188)

Miller has reached 50 in 13 of his last 16 games, going back to his 158-yard game against Michigan last season. He's six of eight this year, missing at 45 against Fresno State and 7 at Wisconsin, and he was seven of eight in those games last season, with the miss at 30 at Oregon. He had at least 13 carries in 15 of the 16.

At Wisconsin he got 11 carries for 7 yards, and Lincoln Riley took blame for not sticking with the run in the second half. Riley also said Miller had dealt with minor injuries in recent weeks and is "starting to come back around in terms of his ability to pop it." A low-scoring game in the rain gives USC every reason to keep handing him the ball, and it keeps USC close enough to do it.

At -188 you're paying for a 65.3% chance, and the matchup is why that's steep. Ohio State allows 92.9 rushing yards a game. Among its Big Ten and Texas opponents, two of five top backs reached 50: Illinois' Aidan Laughery with 113 and Texas' Hollywood Smothers with 74. Maryland's DeJuan Williams had 48 and Indiana's Turbo Richard had 46, each on 16 carries, and Iowa's Kamari Moulton had 27 on 11. So Miller needs his usual workload, and Treter's absence doesn't help. Waymond Jordan and Riley Wormley didn't play at Wisconsin on coach's decisions, and Jordan had 6 to 11 carries in the four straight games Miller cleared 50 before that. A big Ohio State lead would take the carries away.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.