New Mexico State vs Florida State Picks 8/29

New Mexico State vs Florida State Picks 8/29

Florida State opens a crucial 2026 season Saturday night at Doak Campbell Stadium against New Mexico State, with kickoff scheduled for 7:00 PM ET on The CW.

The Seminoles are coming off a 5-7 season, and Mike Norvell enters the year under serious pressure to show immediate progress. Florida State has upgraded several areas of the roster, added Ashton Daniels at quarterback and returns one of the better receiving duos in the ACC.

Against an overmatched New Mexico State team, this is a spot where FSU should be looking to make a statement.

Predictions

Florida State -32.5 (-105)

Under 52.5 (-105)

Duce Robinson (FSU) 80+ Receiving Yards (-114) 

PICK #1: Florida State Seminoles -32.5 over New Mexico State Aggies (-105)

This number is massive, but Florida State needs a convincing win more than any favorite playing Saturday.

Norvell has missed bowl eligibility in back-to-back seasons, and another slow start could mean he is out. In similar mismatches, his teams have not been shy about running up the score. Florida State beat East Texas A&M 77-3 and Kent State 66-10 last season, while earlier Norvell teams posted 66-13 and 58-13 wins against clearly inferior opponents.

Daniels gives Florida State a veteran dual-threat quarterback, while the offense brings back Duce Robinson and Micahi Danzy. Robinson topped 1,000 receiving yards last season, while Danzy averaged more than 21 yards per catch.

Running back Ousmane Kromah has also reportedly been explosive in camp.

The offensive line is the area I want to see most. Florida State added experience through the portal, but whether those additions actually solved last season's problems remains uncertain.

New Mexico State allowed 165 rushing yards per game last season, and Florida State should be able to lean on its size up front.

PICK #2: New Mexico State vs Florida State Under 52.5 (-105)

The Aggies averaged only 21.6 points per game last season and now turn to Trey Hedden at quarterback. Hedden put up respectable passing totals at Furman, but this will be a much more difficult environment against a Florida State defense that should be improved in Year 2 of its current system.

The Seminoles added linebacker Chris Jones after his 134-tackle season at Southern Miss and brought in multiple transfers in the secondary.

New Mexico State's offensive line does bring plenty of experience, but the Aggies struggled badly running the ball last season and now face an FSU front that should be able to control early downs.

Florida State could score 40-plus and still keep this game under if New Mexico State can't reach double digits.

The Aggies do have some defensive competence and created turnovers at a high rate last season, so they may be able to slow Florida State for a few possessions. 

PICK #3: Duce Robinson (FSU) 80+ Receiving Yards (-114)

At six-foot-six, Robinson gives Daniels an enormous target and already proved he can produce as a featured receiver after nearly reaching 1,100 yards last season.

New Mexico State's secondary struggled with passing efficiency last year and now has to deal with both Robinson's size and Danzy's speed.

Florida State should establish the run early, which can create cleaner play-action opportunities for Daniels. When those chances come, Robinson is the obvious player to feature.

I also expect Norvell to make sure Daniels gets into rhythm before the Week 1 matchup with SMU. That means feeding his top receiver rather than hiding the passing game completely.

Danzy could hit the explosive play, but Robinson should get the steadier volume.

At 80-plus yards, I like the combination of matchup, expected usage and Florida State's desire to start the season with an emphatic offensive performance.