Michigan State vs. Michigan Prediction, CFB Week 10 Odds & Best Bets (11/7)

Fact checked at 9:12 AM ET, Nov 7, 2026

Odds as of 8:07 AM ET, Nov 7, 2026

Michigan State (2-6, 0-5 Big Ten) brings a six-game losing streak and very little of its offense to Michigan Stadium in Ann Arbor for a 7:30 PM ET kickoff against Michigan (5-3, 2-3). The Spartans have ruled out their top three running backs, Cam Edwards, Jaziun Patterson and Marvis Parrish, plus tight end Jayden Savoury and backup quarterback Cam Fancher. Starting quarterback Alessio Milivojevic is questionable after missing the 28-10 loss at UCLA, where true freshman Kayd Coffman made his first start. Michigan has a new quarterback of its own: freshman Tommy Carr took over for the benched Bryce Underwood and went 22 of 27 for 266 yards in his second start, a 28-21 win at Rutgers.

Michigan is a 14.5-point favorite with a total of 39.5. We think a short-handed Michigan State offense can't keep pace with Michigan's defense, the Wolverines pull away, and the Spartans spend the second half throwing to Chrishon McCray. Expect a dry, cold night with a light west wind.

Michigan State vs. Michigan Predictions

• Pick #1: Michigan -14.5 (-106)
• Pick #2: Chrishon McCray 30+ Receiving Yards (-167)

PICK #1: Michigan -14.5 (-106)

Michigan State is on its fourth running back, Kenneth Williams, and could be on its third quarterback. If Milivojevic can't go, it's Coffman again, and he completed 4 of 10 passes for 42 yards at UCLA before Leo Hannan replaced him. The Spartans have scored 13 or fewer in three of their last five games, including 3 at Wisconsin and 10 at UCLA.

Michigan's defense gives up 16.4 points and 250 yards a game. The 21 it allowed at Rutgers is its season high. Michigan State's defense allows 25.8 points a game and is missing linebacker Jordan Hall, defensive tackle Ben Roberts and cornerbacks Tre Bell and Charles Brantley. Carr also ran for 54 yards and two touchdowns at Rutgers, and Michigan needs that kind of game from him to clear 14.5.

The offense is where this can go wrong. Michigan averages 21.3 points, scored 6 against Indiana and 14 at Minnesota, and has won by more than 14.5 just once in eight games, against UTEP. The -106 price implies 51.5%, and we're paying it because Michigan State shows up without its top three backs, its top tight end and maybe its starting quarterback. Spread bettors are split: 61% of the money on Michigan on 54% of the tickets. If Milivojevic plays and plays well, the Spartans get harder to put away.

PICK #2: Chrishon McCray 30+ Receiving Yards (-167)

McCray and Savoury were tied for the team lead with 29 catches. With Savoury and the top three backs out, a Michigan State team playing from behind has fewer places to go with the ball, and McCray is the obvious one.

He has 30 or more in four of his five Big Ten games: 47 against Nebraska, 33 against Illinois, 64 against Northwestern and 42 at UCLA. The miss was 19 at Wisconsin. Look at UCLA in particular. Milivojevic sat, Coffman and Hannan threw for 109 yards between them, and 42 of those went to McCray. For the full season he's 5 of 8, after 10 yards against Eastern Michigan and 5 at Notre Dame early on. That's right at the 62.5% that -167 implies, so this bet is about the role he has now, with Savoury's targets up for grabs.

He hasn't needed many catches to get there: three in each of his last two games, one of them a 53-yarder against Northwestern. Michigan allows 150.6 passing yards a game, and if it takes away the deep throws, he's left trying to get there on short completions.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.