Miami vs. Notre Dame Prediction, CFB Week 10 Odds & Best Bets (11/7)

Fact checked at 9:11 AM ET, Nov 7, 2026

Odds as of 8:07 AM ET, Nov 7, 2026

Miami is 8-0 and No. 1 in the College Football Playoff rankings, and it visits No. 11 Notre Dame (7-1) at 7:30 PM ET at Notre Dame Stadium without its best receiver. Malachi Toney suffered a high ankle sprain in practice this week and is set to have surgery that will keep him out at least four weeks. He had 38.6% of Miami's receiving yards for an offense that leads the country at 47.6 points a game. Notre Dame is a 7-point favorite and the total is 54.5. Most total tickets, 65%, are on the Under, but 52% of the money is on the Over.

Notre Dame should win this game on the ground near the goal line, with Miami spending the night throwing to catch up. Nolan James scoring and Darian Mensah's passing yards both come out of that script. Notre Dame will be without linebacker Drayk Bowen, cornerback DJ McKinney and safety Brauntae Johnson. Mensah and CJ Carr are expected to start, and the forecast is dry and around 40 degrees with little wind.

Miami vs. Notre Dame Predictions

• Pick #1: Nolan James Anytime Touchdown (-180)
• Pick #2: Darian Mensah 210+ Passing Yards (-177)

PICK #1: Nolan James Anytime Touchdown (-180)

James has scored in all eight of Notre Dame's games, 11 touchdowns in all. Eight came on the ground and three on catches out of the backfield, which is why Miami's run defense, the best in the country, worries us less than it might. He doesn't need a clean running lane to find the end zone.

He has also been the back Notre Dame trusts when the opponent is good. At BYU, the one ranked team the Irish have played, he carried 16 times for 77 yards and scored, while Jonaz Walton and Aneyas Williams combined for 25 yards on eight carries. Against Navy he ran nine times for 107 yards and two touchdowns, one of them a 52-yard run. The spread and total put Notre Dame at about 31 points, and Miami still gives up short scores on the ground: Clemson, Florida State, Pittsburgh and North Carolina each ran one in, so it has allowed a rushing touchdown in four of its last five games.

Laying -180 means paying for a 64.3% chance, and he has scored every week. The split is what could beat it. Williams and Walton share the depth chart with him, and each has four rushing touchdowns this season. If Carr's touchdowns go to receivers instead, this loses. Notre Dame plays no conference schedule and posts no availability report, so James is expected to play but not confirmed.

PICK #2: Darian Mensah 210+ Passing Yards (-177)

Mensah hasn't thrown for fewer than 220 yards in a game this season. He had 401 at Stanford, 252 against FCS Florida A&M on 15 attempts, 220 at Wake Forest, 338 against Central Michigan, 227 at Clemson, 326 against Florida State, 387 against Pittsburgh and 274 at North Carolina. He leads FBS in completion percentage at 80.7%.

Notre Dame's pass defense is the obstacle. The Irish allow 150.9 passing yards a game, sixth in FBS, and only Wisconsin (217) and BYU (239) have reached 210 against them. A lot of that is volume. Opponents average about 24 attempts a game against Notre Dame, and Navy, Rice and Michigan State threw 9, 12 and 18 times. Notre Dame allows 6.2 yards per attempt. Mensah's worst game by that measure was 6.5 at Wake Forest, and he still got to 220 because he threw 34 times.

Volume is how this cashes. A 7-point underdog playing without Toney should throw more than usual. Toney had five catches for 40 yards at Clemson and Mensah still threw for 227. Cooper Barkate (28 catches, 372 yards) and Daylyn Upshaw (22 catches, 263 yards) take on more of the targets, and Notre Dame's secondary is without McKinney and Johnson. The -177 price implies 63.9%.

It's not a cheap number. Leonard Moore leads a secondary that has held most teams well short of 210, and if Miami gets an early lead and runs the ball, the volume disappears. Mensah is the expected starter, and if he doesn't play, this pick has no case.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.