Memphis vs UNLV Picks 8/29

Memphis vs UNLV Picks 8/29

Memphis and UNLV meet for the first time Saturday night in one of Week 0’s most intriguing matchup. Kickoff from Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas is scheduled for 10:00 PM ET on FOX.

Both programs enter 2026 with legitimate conference-title aspirations, but they arrive in very different situations. UNLV brings back more continuity under Dan Mullen after winning 10 games last season, while Memphis begins the Charles Huff era with an almost completely rebuilt roster.

Predictions

UNLV Rebels -4.5 (-105)

Over 56.5 (-110)

Jai’Den Thomas (UNLV) 90+ Rushing Yards (+100) 

PICK #1: UNLV Rebels -4.5 over Memphis Tigers (-105)

Memphis has enough talent to make this interesting, but I trust UNLV’s continuity significantly more in Week 0.

The Tigers essentially rebuilt the roster from scratch. Right guard Parker Mitchell is the lone returning offensive starter, while only three of last year’s top 26 tacklers are back. Huff did bring 17 players with him from Southern Miss, so this is not a completely unfamiliar operation, but asking so many new pieces to communicate cleanly in a difficult road environment is still a concern.

Mullen returns with his coordinators, several established starters and the best individual offensive weapon in this game in running back Jai’Den Thomas.

The quarterback situation has received plenty of attention because both Jackson Arnold and Alex Orji are expected to play, but I actually view that as more of an opportunity than a weakness in this matchup. Neither is a polished pocket passer, but both can stress defenses with their legs, and Mullen has always been creative in designing quarterback-run packages.

That could be especially difficult for a Memphis defense breaking in young linebackers and a new system.

J’Mond Tapp is a legitimate difference-maker for the Tigers after producing 12 tackles for loss and 7.5 sacks last season, and Lance Guidry is an excellent defensive coordinator. Memphis should generate some negative plays.

Over four quarters, though, I expect UNLV’s experience, home-field advantage and rushing attack to create separation.

PICK #2: Memphis vs UNLV Over 56.5 (-110)

UNLV finished inside the national top 20 in both total offense and scoring last season, and the foundation remains strong. Thomas averaged 7.0 yards per carry during a 1,000-yard season, while backup Jaylon Glover averaged 6.0. Add two mobile quarterbacks and Mullen has plenty of ways to attack a Memphis front that is still learning to play together.

The Rebels allowed 419 yards per game last season and finished outside the top 100 nationally against both the run and pass. They created turnovers at a high rate, but consistently getting offenses off the field was a problem.

Memphis has the pieces to exploit that weakness. New offensive coordinator Kevin Decker coordinated an Old Dominion rushing attack that produced 238 yards per game last season. He now inherits Dallan Hayden at running back and either Marcus Stokes or Air Noland at quarterback.

If Stokes gets the majority of the snaps, his jump from Division II is a legitimate concern, but his mobility fits Decker’s system well after he rushed for 10 touchdowns last year.

PICK #3: Jai’Den Thomas (UNLV) 90+ Rushing Yards (+100)

Thomas is the player I most trust to make an immediate impact. He was one of college football’s most explosive running backs last season, helping UNLV finish sixth nationally in runs of at least 10 yards and seventh in runs of 20-plus.

Memphis brought in plenty of experienced defensive transfers, but the second level remains young, and Mullen should be aggressive about forcing those linebackers to process option looks, quarterback movement and misdirection.

The presence of Arnold and Orji should only make Thomas more dangerous. Defenders cannot simply crash down on the running back when either quarterback is capable of keeping the ball.

At an even-money price, 90 rushing yards is a number I’m comfortable attacking in a matchup where UNLV should make its ground game the centerpiece of the offense.