Memphis vs. Iowa State Prediction, Men's College Basketball Odds & Best Bets (11/2)

Fact checked at 8:47 AM ET, Nov 2, 2026

Odds as of 8:46 AM ET, Nov 2, 2026

No. 18 Iowa State and Memphis open the season at 7:00 PM ET on FS1 at the Sanford Pentagon in Sioux Falls, South Dakota, a neutral floor. Iowa State is favored by 14.5. We think Iowa State's defense sets the terms against two offenses still being pieced together, which means fewer points than the total expects and a margin that's hard to push past two touchdowns. That puts us on the Under and Memphis with the points. Picture something like Iowa State 78, Memphis 66.

Both rosters turned over, and this is the first real look at either. Iowa State lost its two leading scorers, Joshua Jefferson to the NBA Draft and Milan Momcilovic to Kentucky, and guard Killyan Toure is out until at least January after shoulder surgery. Memphis brought back two players. Its center, Nemanja Popovic, has a six-game NCAA withholding period that the school is appealing, and no decision has been announced, so we're treating him as out. Lineups are projected.

Memphis vs. Iowa State Predictions

• Pick #1: Under 155.5 (-110)
• Pick #2: Memphis +14.5 (-108)

PICK #1: Under 155.5 (-110)

T.J. Otzelberger is in his sixth season at Iowa State, and his defense ranked in the national top 15 in each of the first five, fifth last season. Much of that roster is gone. He isn't, and neither is Tamin Lipsey, the program's all-time steals leader, who is back for a fifth season and projected to start.

Scoring is where both teams have holes. Iowa State's own preview says its offense "will look to reinvent itself" without Jefferson and Momcilovic, and Toure won't be there to help. Memphis turned it over 15 times in its exhibition loss at Arkansas. Without Popovic it also loses its most productive big man: he averaged 14 points in the two exhibitions, while Maxim Logue, the likely starter in his place, played 12 minutes across both games.

The price is -110, a 52.4% chance. For a first game between two rebuilt teams, one of them coached by a man whose defenses have finished top 15 every year, we think the Under clears that.

Pace and shooting would sink it. Penny Hardaway's teams have tended to play fast, Memphis shot 45% from three in its exhibition win at Mississippi State, and Iowa State scored 94 on Northwestern in an exhibition. If Popovic wins his appeal and plays, Memphis gets another scorer inside.

PICK #2: Memphis +14.5 (-108)

A game that stays under the total is a game Memphis can stay inside of. Fewer possessions make a 15-point margin harder to build, and Iowa State is still working out who scores for it.

Memphis does have veteran transfers who have scored at this level. Jayden Reid averaged 10.1 points at Northwestern, and Tylik Weeks led the Sun Belt at 19.7 a game for Southern Miss last season. Reid went for 26 on 11-of-15 shooting with no turnovers in the exhibition win at Mississippi State, and Memphis won the second half 47-45 in its exhibition loss at Arkansas. Otzelberger has noticed. "They've got veteran guards," he said. "Guys that have had experience at the high major level and been successful."

At -108 you need 51.9%. We know we're against the grain here: the line has climbed from 13.5 since it opened, and most previews we read are laying the points with Iowa State. We still think 14.5 is a lot to ask of an offense that just lost its two best scorers.

Popovic was Memphis's best player in the exhibitions, and without him the frontcourt is thin. The crowd should lean Iowa State, which is about a three-hour drive away; Hardaway called it "pretty much a home game." And if Memphis gives the ball away like it did at Arkansas, the margin can get out of hand quickly.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.