Mavericks vs. Pacers Prediction, NBA Odds & Best Bets (10/23)

Fact checked at 10:00 AM ET, Oct 23, 2026

Odds as of Oct 23, 9:59 AM ET

Indiana opened with a 123-120 win at New Orleans behind Tyrese Haliburton, who had 23 points and 12 assists in 34 minutes in his first regular-season game since tearing his Achilles in Game 7 of the 2025 Finals. Pascal Siakam scored 30 and Ivica Zubac had 16 points and 15 rebounds. Dallas lost 128-110 at Houston in Dusty May's first game as head coach. The Mavericks trailed by 32 at halftime before winning the second half by 14, and Cooper Flagg scored 32, 11 of them at the line. Kyrie Irving, playing his first regular-season game since tearing his ACL in March 2025, scored 15 in about 24 minutes.

Indiana is a 7.5-point favorite, a point higher than it opened, and the total has climbed from 235.5 to about 240. Dallas is without Dereck Lively II, Caleb Martin, Santi Aldama and Tarik Biberovic, Jett Howard is doubtful, and this is the front end of a back-to-back, with the Spurs in Dallas on Saturday. Irving is not on the injury report. Indiana has T.J. McConnell and Johnny Furphy out, with Aaron Nesmith and Ben Sheppard questionable.

We expect Indiana's short bench to keep leaning on Obi Toppin for points, and Dallas to run its offense through Irving while Flagg finishes plays. Both picks are built on that game. Tip-off is 7:00 PM ET Friday at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis.

Mavericks vs. Pacers Predictions

• Pick #1: Obi Toppin Over 12.5 Points (-127)
• Pick #2: Cooper Flagg Under 5.5 Assists (-149)

PICK #1: Obi Toppin Over 12.5 Points (-127)

When Toppin gets real minutes, he scores. He had 20 points in 25 minutes off the bench at New Orleans, going 4-of-9 from three. Last season he missed most of the year and came back in a limited role, but in the 12 games he played at least 18 minutes, he scored 13 or more nine times, including 21, 14, 26 and 21 in four of his last five.

The minutes should be there again. McConnell is out, Furphy is out and Sheppard, who played 12 minutes Wednesday, is questionable, so Indiana's bench is thin. Besides Sheppard, the only other reserves to play more than five minutes in the opener were Jarace Walker and Quenton Jackson, and neither took more than six shots. Toppin took 12. Haliburton's return hasn't pushed him out of the offense either: Haliburton handed out 12 assists and Toppin still got nine looks from three.

At -127, the implied chance is 55.9%. Nesmith is the main risk. He was upgraded from out to questionable, and if he plays, Indiana's forward rotation gets one body deeper and Toppin could drift back toward 18 to 20 minutes. His scoring also leans on threes, so a cold shooting night can sink this even with normal minutes.

PICK #2: Cooper Flagg Under 5.5 Assists (-149)

Irving is back to run the Dallas offense, and that changes Flagg's job. Flagg won Rookie of the Year last season with Irving out all year, and still stayed under 5.5 assists in 44 of his 70 games while averaging 4.5.

With Irving on the floor, the ball has moved away from him. Flagg had two assists in 33 minutes at Houston, while Irving started at point guard and Naji Marshall led the team with six off the bench. Flagg did his damage as a finisher: 32 points on 17 shots and 13 free throws. In the two preseason games he played next to Irving, he had seven assists in the first and four in the second.

The -149 price implies a 59.8% chance, a little below his under rate from a season when he was often Dallas' main creator. The case against is that he passed more late last season, going over this number in 11 of his last 21 games, and that Irving is still on a minutes plan after playing about 24 Wednesday. When Irving sits, Dallas leans on Flagg to create, so a short night for Irving on the front end of a back-to-back would hand him more of the ball.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.