Lightning vs. Avalanche Prediction, NHL Odds & Best Bets (10/23)

Fact checked at 10:01 AM ET, Oct 23, 2026

Odds as of Oct 23, 9:59 AM ET

Tampa Bay arrives in Denver at 7-2-0, winners of three straight after a 6-2 win at Vegas on Tuesday. Colorado is 5-4-1 after losing at Philadelphia on Monday and at New Jersey on Tuesday, but that record undersells the Avalanche. They have scored 41 goals in 10 games, 4.1 a game and second in the league behind Edmonton, they are plus-10 in goal difference, and four of their five losses came by a single goal, one of them in a shootout.

The projected goaltenders have not been sharp. Andrei Vasilevskiy is expected for Tampa Bay with a .898 save percentage, and Mackenzie Blackwood is expected for Colorado at .889. Tampa Bay plays at Utah on Saturday, and center Anthony Cirelli is day-to-day after scoring twice and then leaving Tuesday's game with an undisclosed injury.

Our read is a Colorado win at home in a game that reaches seven goals. The Avalanche are -125 on the moneyline and the total is 6.5. Puck drops Friday at 9:00 PM ET at Ball Arena in Denver.

Lightning vs. Avalanche Predictions

• Pick #1: Avalanche Moneyline (-125)
• Pick #2: Over 6.5 (+102)

PICK #1: Avalanche Moneyline (-125)

Colorado's attack is the best unit in this game. The Avalanche have scored five or more four times (8-4 against Los Angeles, 6-1 against St. Louis, 7-3 at Calgary and 5-2 against Pittsburgh), Nathan MacKinnon has 16 points in 10 games, and Artturi Lehkonen has eight goals. They have done it without Nicolas Roy and Zachary L'Heureux, both out, and Logan O'Connor is projected to make his season debut on the fourth line. At home they are 3-1-1.

The losses were close: 3-2 at Winnipeg, a shootout against Dallas, 3-2 at Philadelphia and 4-3 at New Jersey, with a 6-3 loss to Toronto the only one by more than a goal. A team that is plus-10 with a .500 record has been unlucky in tight games more than it has been beaten. The bigger bets agree: Colorado has 83% of the moneyline money on 72% of the tickets. At -125 the price implies a 55.6% chance, and we rate the Avalanche higher than that at home.

Tampa Bay is a real opponent. The Lightning have allowed 2.56 goals a game, sixth-fewest in the league, and Vasilevskiy is 7-5-1 with a .911 save percentage in 13 career starts against Colorado. A healthy Cirelli would put their top line back together. Colorado's finishing also has some air in it: Lehkonen's eight goals have come on 16 shots. The moneyline counts overtime and any shootout.

PICK #2: Over 6.5 (+102)

Six of Colorado's 10 games have reached seven goals, including 12 in the win over Los Angeles, 10 at Calgary and nine against Toronto. The Avalanche allow 3.1 goals a game, tied for 14th in the league, so their own end does not shut games down either. Add two projected starters who are both below .900 and 6.5 looks low.

The Over has drawn 92% of the money on 79% of the bets. At +102 you need it to cash 49.5% of the time, roughly a coin flip, for a game where one side averages more than four goals. The total counts overtime, and a shootout credits the winner with one goal, so a 3-3 game decided in a shootout becomes 4-3 and goes over.

The risk is Tampa Bay's style. Only three of the Lightning's nine games have gone over 6.5, and two of those were wins in which Tampa Bay scored five or six. If Colorado turns to Scott Wedgewood (.912 in three appearances) instead of Blackwood, or Vasilevskiy finds his form against the Avalanche again, the total gets harder.

Both picks win the same way, with Colorado scoring four or more at home, and both lose if Tampa Bay's defense and goaltending keep the Avalanche to two or three.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.