Knicks vs. Celtics Prediction, NBA Odds & Best Bets (10/23)

Fact checked at 10:14 AM ET, Oct 23, 2026

Odds as of Oct 23, 10:11 AM ET

Both of these teams are 0-1, and Boston opens its home schedule against New York at 7:00 PM ET at TD Garden. The defending champion Knicks lost 106-100 at home to Philadelphia on Tuesday, shooting 37 percent and turning it over 15 times. Boston led Detroit by 22 in the second half that day and still lost 121-113 after giving up 39 points in the fourth quarter.

The summer changed both rosters. Boston sent Jaylen Brown to Philadelphia for Paul George, who scored 38 in his debut, and signed Mitchell Robinson away from New York to start at center. The Knicks picked up Andre Drummond, who came off the bench Tuesday for 12 points and 14 rebounds. Devin Carter is out for Boston with an illness, and New York's only listings are three two-way players marked questionable.

New York won three of the four meetings last season, 105-95, 111-89 at TD Garden and 112-106. Boston's lone win was 123-117 in December, and the Celtics averaged 103.3 points across the four games. Neither team likes to run: Boston had the fewest possessions per game in the league last season, and New York was among the four slowest. Boston is a 2.5-point favorite (-130 on the moneyline, New York +110), the same spread it opened at. The total opened at 223.5 and has dropped to 221.5, even with most of the public betting the Over.

We expect the Knicks to pull Boston into the same slow, half-court game they kept winning last season. At that pace the game stays under the total and stays close, and both picks need exactly that.

Knicks vs. Celtics Predictions

• Pick #1: Under 221.5 (-110)
• Pick #2: Knicks +2.5 (-112)

PICK #1: Under 221.5 (-110)

Three of last season's four meetings would have stayed under this number, with totals of 200, 200 and 218, so the two-point drop still leaves room. Only Boston's 123-117 win in December went over. Both teams play slowly: Boston averaged 94.8 possessions per 48 minutes last season, slowest in the NBA, and New York averaged 96.8. Both defenses were good, too: Boston allowed 112.7 points per 100 possessions and New York allowed 113.3.

New York's opener was low-scoring as well. The loss to Philadelphia totaled 206 points, and a Knicks offense that shot 37 percent and gave the ball away 15 times isn't going to push a total up on the road against a set defense.

Boston's three-point volume is what can beat this. The Celtics took 42 threes in Detroit, made 17, and that game landed at 234. A hot night from George and the guards could carry this over by itself.

-110 implies a 52.4% chance. Given how these two played each other last season and how slowly both play, we rate the Under higher than that, though the drop from 223.5 has taken some of the value.

PICK #2: Knicks +2.5 (-112)

The Knicks went 3-1 against Boston last season and covered in three of the four, including a 22-point win at TD Garden in February. Their core is back from a title team. Boston is still fitting new pieces together: Brown is gone, George is 36, and Robinson is new at center.

The opener didn't settle much for the Celtics. They were up 22 on Detroit in the second half, got outscored 39-25 in the fourth quarter and lost by eight. Jayson Tatum shot 6-of-23, including 0-of-7 from three.

Boston still has home court and won three more games than New York last season, and most of the spread bets are on the Celtics. Robinson spent two seasons as Karl-Anthony Towns' teammate and knows his game, and he can make the paint harder for New York.

The price, -112, works out to a 52.8% break-even. The Knicks cash this with a win or with a loss by one or two, and in a low-possession game those two and a half points go a long way.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.