Kentucky vs. Tennessee Prediction, CFB Week 10 Odds & Best Bets (11/7)

Fact checked at 9:09 AM ET, Nov 7, 2026

Odds as of 8:07 AM ET, Nov 7, 2026

No. 6 Kentucky (7-1) visits No. 13 Tennessee (6-2) at 6:15 PM ET at Neyland Stadium in Knoxville, with both teams coming off a bye. Tennessee is a 6-point favorite, and 82% of the moneyline money is on the Volunteers. Kentucky has made a habit of winning close ones: 35-34 in overtime against both South Carolina and LSU, then 21-13 at Oklahoma. Its only loss was 45-17 at home to Alabama.

The two lead backs should decide this. Tennessee's passing game is a mess. Josh Heupel still hasn't named a starter, and George MacIntyre, who has started the last three games and is likely to start again, has two touchdown passes and three interceptions. That leaves the Volunteers relying on DeSean Bishop. Kentucky gets CJ Baxter back from a shoulder injury, and its offense runs through its backs as well. Our picks come out of that game, with Bishop carrying Tennessee and Baxter finishing Kentucky's drives in a game that stays competitive.

Kentucky vs. Tennessee Predictions

• Pick #1: DeSean Bishop 120+ Rushing Yards (-158)
• Pick #2: CJ Baxter Anytime Touchdown (-110)

PICK #1: DeSean Bishop 120+ Rushing Yards (-158)

Bishop has topped 120 rushing yards in five of Tennessee's six games against FBS opponents: 147 at Georgia Tech, 220 against Auburn, 138 at Arkansas, 159 against Alabama and 120 at South Carolina. His one miss was 34 yards on 11 carries against Texas. Against FBS teams he averages 136.3 yards a game.

Tennessee keeps feeding him. He has carried at least 19 times in each of the last four games and 32 or more in three of them, including 32 in the loss at South Carolina. Kentucky coach Will Stein described the problem: Tennessee uses "tight ends in the run game. They have really big offensive linemen that can move the point of attack, and then they hand it off to an elite back." With no starter named at quarterback, there's no reason to expect a different plan tonight. The -158 price works out to a 61.2% chance.

Kentucky's run defense is the obstacle. Alabama's Daniel Hill is the only running back to reach 100 yards against the Wildcats, with 104 on 18 carries, and no other back has gained more than 74 against them. Vanderbilt ran for 15 yards in Kentucky's last game. But no FBS running back has carried more than 18 times against Kentucky, and Bishop has carried 32 or more in three of his last four games. Volume is what gets him there. It can be tight, as the 120 yards on 32 carries at South Carolina showed. Tennessee is also without left guard Wendell Moe Jr. and tight end Ethan Davis, both out for the season. Bishop isn't on the SEC availability report.

PICK #2: CJ Baxter Anytime Touchdown (-110)

When Baxter has played a full game against an FBS team, he has usually scored. He has eight rushing touchdowns in seven games, two of them against FCS Youngstown State. Against FBS opponents he has scored in four of six games: twice at Texas A&M, once against South Alabama, once at South Carolina and twice against LSU. The blanks were the Alabama loss and the Vanderbilt game, which he left after one carry with the shoulder injury. He didn't play at Oklahoma.

He's off the SEC availability report, and Stein said he is "going to be ready to rock and roll," adding that Baxter "had a really good last week" during the off week. He has 487 rushing yards, and Kentucky has scored at least 21 points in every game since the Alabama loss. If this is the close game Tennessee's SEC results point to, Kentucky will get chances near the goal line, and Baxter is the back most likely to get the ball there. He's priced at -110, a 52.4% chance.

The risks are Tennessee's defense and Kentucky's own backfield. Tennessee hasn't allowed more than 27 points to an SEC opponent, so Kentucky may not get many trips inside the 10. Jason Patterson and Jovantae Barnes carried 27 times against Vanderbilt without Baxter, and Kenny Minchey has two rushing touchdowns of his own, so the goal-line carry won't always go to Baxter. If he is limited, this pick loses its case.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.