Kennesaw State vs. Middle Tennessee Prediction, CFB Week 9 Odds & Best Bets (10/28)

Fact checked at 9:07 AM ET, Oct 28, 2026

Odds as of 8:24 AM ET, Oct 28, 2026

Kennesaw State won Conference USA last season. This year it comes to Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium at 1-6 (0-3 in the league), on a six-game losing streak, with its only win a 47-0 opener against West Georgia. Kickoff is 7:00 PM ET on CBS Sports Network. Middle Tennessee (4-3, 2-1) has won two straight, 33-30 over Delaware and 26-23 at FIU, and is 3-0 at home.

We expect the Blue Raiders to win a slow, low-scoring game on the ground. Kennesaw State scored two field goals in its last game and still hasn't settled on a quarterback, and Middle Tennessee ran for 248 yards in its last one. Something like 24-17 covers the short spread and stays under the total, so both picks are riding on the same game.

Middle Tennessee is a 2.5-point favorite at -118, down from where the line opened, and the total is 50.5. Most of the moneyline money (82%) has gone to Kennesaw State. Rickie Collins started against Liberty and went 15-of-26 for 124 yards with two interceptions before Landon Varnes took over and finished 9-of-15 for 111. Kennesaw State hasn't said who starts tonight, and the conference availability report for this game isn't out yet. Murfreesboro's forecast is clear and around 70 degrees at kickoff, with a light wind.

Kennesaw State vs. Middle Tennessee Predictions

• Pick #1: Middle Tennessee -2.5 (-118)
• Pick #2: Under 50.5 (-111)

PICK #1: Middle Tennessee -2.5 (-118)

After the 34-6 loss to Liberty, Kennesaw State's coach called the offensive execution some of the worst he had seen in his career. The box score agrees with him. The Owls ran for 62 yards on 27 carries, had the ball for less than 23 minutes and were outgained 402-297. They have thrown four touchdown passes and six interceptions this season, and in six games against FBS teams they average 15.5 points.

Middle Tennessee has the run game to lean on that. Terrence Brown Jr. carried 18 times for 158 yards at FIU, the team finished with 248 rushing yards and didn't turn it over, and Liberty had just piled up 215 on the ground against this Kennesaw State defense. The Blue Raiders' kicker is 10-of-11 on field goals, three of them from 50 yards or longer, so a drive that stalls near midfield can still put points up. Kennesaw State is 0-3 on the road.

At -118 the implied probability is 54.1%, and we wouldn't call that a bargain. Middle Tennessee converts only about a quarter of its third downs, near the bottom of FBS, and both of its recent wins came by three points (a three-point win still covers). The Owls have lost close games, too: 17-14 at Arkansas State, 27-26 to Jacksonville State, 24-21 at Missouri State. The average of the computer ratings has Middle Tennessee by about 2.7, right on the number. We're laying it anyway, because the Kennesaw State offense bottomed out against Liberty after those close games.

PICK #2: Under 50.5 (-111)

Kennesaw State hasn't scored more than 26 points since its opener. Five of its seven games have stayed under 50.5, and against FBS teams its games have totaled 48, 51, 31, 53, 45 and 40. Middle Tennessee's best output against an FBS opponent is 33. Last season's meeting finished 24-16.

The clock should help. Middle Tennessee kept the ball for more than 33 minutes at FIU, and a home team running with a lead burns time. Eight of the two teams' 14 games finished under this number, and a dry, calm night means the weather won't push the total either way.

The -111 price implies 52.6%. The Under has drawn 40% of the bets and 46% of the money, so this is the less popular side. Where it can go wrong is the defenses. Middle Tennessee gives up 27.6 points a game, and four of its seven games went over this total, including the 33-30 win over Delaware and the 55-0 loss at Kansas. Kennesaw State has allowed points on almost every red-zone trip, and a new quarterback could wake up the Owls' offense. Both offenses still rank outside the top 100 in FBS scoring, though, and we think this lands in the low 40s.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.