Jaguars @ Chiefs - Preview, Picks and Props for Saturday

The Chiefs host the Jaguars and the Eagles visit the Giants on Saturday night. The point spreads are big but the games should be highly entertaining.  

The Chiefs are heavy favorites at Arrowhead, enjoyed a bye week last weekend and haven’t lost a game since Dec. 4. Patrick Mahomes has never lost in the divisional round in four starts and all four of those wins came at Arrowhead, including last year’s thrilling win over the Bills in overtime. 

Mahomes will be targeting Travis Kelce and running back Jerick McKinnon through the air today early and often. Kelce had 110 passes this season and the 30-year-old McKinnon has, unbelievably, caught a touchdown pass in six straight games. That’s not bad from a guy who wasn’t even drafted in fantasy leagues. Kelce, who was often the first tight end off the board, racked up 1,338 yards receiving and caught 12 TDs of his own, while Mahomes ran for four scores and threw for 5,250 yards and 41 TDs with just 12 interceptions. JuJu Smith-Schuster caught 78 passes for 933 yards and three touchdowns, and Marquez Valdes-Scantling had 42 catches and two scores on the season.  

The Chiefs defense was ranked No. 16 this season and will face a Jags offense that was 11th with 43 total TDs. The home-field crowd at Arrowhead should be in a frenzy today after Trevor Lawrence inadvertently challenged them last weekend. “I can’t imagine it will be much louder than our fans were here on Saturday,” he said. It’s going to be tough for the Jaguars to communicate on offense in this game. 

The Jaguars have trailed in nine of their last 10 games and also haven’t lost since Dec. 4. They were famously down 27-0 to the Chargers last weekend and came back to win 31-30 in a shocker. Lawrence is 37-0 on Saturdays throughout his career at Cartersville High School, Clemson and the last two Saturdays for the Jags and coach Doug Pederson is also undefeated on Saturdays, going 3-0 in Philadelphia and Jacksonville.

Lawrence completed 66 percent of his passes this season for 4,113 yards, 25 touchdowns and just eight interceptions and also rushed for five TDs. Travis Etienne Jr. had a big year and was a fantasy surprise with 1,125 yards and five rushing TDs, but despite catching 35 balls, never put one in the end zone through the air. Wide receiver Christian Kirk is Lawrence’s favorite target and caught 84 balls for 1,108 yards and eight touchdowns to lead the Jags offense this season. Zay Jones caught 82 passes for 823 yards and five scores, and tight end Evan Engram had 73 catches for 766 yards and four TDs. 

Lawrence threw four TDs and four picks last weekend as Kirk, Jones, Engram and Marvin Jones Jr. all hit pay dirt against the Chargers. The Jags defense ranked No. 12 in the league this season against a KC offense that led the league with 61 total TDs. 

Top Oddscrowd betting performer moggy_doggy likes the Jaguars minus the points today and stormy1114 likes the Under of 53 points scored. The home-field advantage the Chiefs will hold today will be a key factor, along with the experience and offensive domination of the Chiefs. Lawrence is going to have to be much better in the first half today than he was last week and the Chiefs will look to put the Jags away if they get off to another bad start at fall behind. But we're going to ride with moggy_doggy and take the Jags and the points.

Pick: Jaguars +9.5

Prop 1: Jerick McKinnon anytime TD

Prop 2: Travis Kelce anytime TD

Prop 3: Patrick Mahomes Over 310.5 passing yards