Jacksonville State vs. New Mexico State Prediction, CFB Week 9 Odds & Best Bets (10/28)

Fact checked at 9:08 AM ET, Oct 28, 2026

Odds as of 8:29 AM ET, Oct 28, 2026

Jacksonville State brings a four-game winning streak, a 5-2 record and a 3-0 mark in Conference USA to Aggie Memorial Stadium in Las Cruces, where New Mexico State (3-4, 2-1) is trying to stay in the league race. Kickoff is 8:00 PM ET on ESPN2. The Gamecocks have had 15 days off since a 27-24 win over FIU. The Aggies won 30-24 at Sam Houston in their last game, and James Jones ran for 178 yards.

We think Jacksonville State has to throw to win this one, and it can do that now. New Mexico State allows 109.1 rushing yards per game, the fewest in the conference, and only 51.3 per game in three league games, at 1.6 yards per carry. A year ago that would have been a problem for a Gamecocks team that leaned on its ground game. This year Caden Creel has completed 67.2% of his passes for 1,637 yards and 12 touchdowns, and his line has allowed seven sacks in seven games. If the run stalls, the yards go to his two main targets, Deondre Johnson and Luke Gilbert, and both of our picks cash in that version of the game.

Jacksonville State is a 3.5-point favorite, up from 2.5 at the open, with a total of 49.5 and moneylines of -162 and +136. The kickoff forecast calls for temperatures in the mid-70s, almost no wind and no rain. The conference availability report for this game hasn't been posted. Jacksonville State has two linebackers out for the season, and its coach said he expects nearly everyone else back.

Jacksonville State vs. New Mexico State Predictions

• Pick #1: Deondre Johnson 50+ Receiving Yards (-175)
• Pick #2: Luke Gilbert 25+ Receiving Yards (-158)

PICK #1: Deondre Johnson 50+ Receiving Yards (-175)

In all five of this season's games against FBS defenses, Johnson has gone over 50 yards: 93 against FIU, 112 at Kennesaw State, 57 against Middle Tennessee, 61 against Georgia Southern and 60 at Ohio. His two misses came in the FCS openers, 26 at North Dakota State and 22 against Eastern Kentucky. He leads the team with 431 yards on 22 catches, or 19.6 yards a catch.

It goes back further than this season, too. Counting last year, he has reached 50 in 11 of Jacksonville State's last 15 games, which is better than the 63.6% that -175 implies. The matchup should send more throws his way. New Mexico State has been close to impossible to run on in league play, while opponents have thrown for about 224 yards per game against it.

That price is steep because of how he gets his yards. He has caught two to four passes in every game, so he depends on a couple of big plays, and one missed connection can leave him short. New Mexico State also has 17 sacks, second in the conference, and an early edge for that pass rush would hurt him. Jacksonville State hasn't played in more than two weeks, either. We'll lay -175 on the receiver who has carried this passing game against FBS defenses.

PICK #2: Luke Gilbert 25+ Receiving Yards (-158)

Twenty-five yards is a modest number for a tight end who averages 22 yards a catch. Gilbert had 55 against FIU, 50 at Kennesaw State, 39 against Middle Tennessee, 4 against Georgia Southern, 82 at Ohio, 46 against Eastern Kentucky and 10 at North Dakota State. That's five of seven games at 25 or more, and -158 implies 61.2%.

Seven games is a short record, and there isn't an older one behind it. Gilbert played special teams last season and didn't catch a pass. He started at tight end against FIU, and this receiving role is new this year. His last three games went for 55, 50 and 39 yards on two or three catches each, and a defense that takes away the run should keep him involved.

What worries us is the one-catch game. Three of his seven games produced a single reception, and two of those ended at 4 and 10 yards. Even the 82-yard night at Ohio was one catch, so his record is lumpy. If New Mexico State's pass rush gets going, he may be asked to stay in and block. His recent usage makes him the second option in this passing game, and the matchup points to the Over.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.