Iowa vs. Northwestern Prediction, CFB Week 10 Odds & Best Bets (11/7)

Fact checked at 9:10 AM ET, Nov 7, 2026

Odds as of 8:07 AM ET, Nov 7, 2026

No. 19 Iowa (6-2, 3-2 Big Ten) visits Northwestern (6-2, 3-2) at 7:30 PM ET at Ryan Field in Evanston, and Northwestern will likely play it without its quarterback. Aidan Chiles has accounted for 23 touchdowns (13 passing, 10 rushing) with one interception. He is doubtful on the Big Ten's latest availability report with an upper-body injury and was reported to be out. Nicco Marchiol, a West Virginia transfer who has thrown one pass this season, is expected to make his first start for the Wildcats.

That means a backup facing the fourth-best scoring defense in FBS, and Iowa should win a low-scoring game. The Hawkeyes allow 12.5 points a game and have given up one touchdown over their last eight quarters. Our call: they cover in a game that stays under the total, with tight end DJ Vonnahme picking up his usual steady yardage on long drives. Hank Brown is expected to start for Iowa. The Hawkeyes will be without starting center Cael Winter, so sixth-year Michael Myslinski makes his first career start, and running back Kamari Moulton is out again.

Iowa vs. Northwestern Predictions

• Pick #1: Iowa -2.5 (-112)
• Pick #2: Under 43.5 (-110)
• Pick #3: DJ Vonnahme 30+ Receiving Yards (-171)

PICK #1: Iowa -2.5 (-112)

We don't think the line has moved far enough. Northwestern was a 2.5-point favorite earlier in the week, and once the report broke that Chiles would miss the game, the line flipped to Iowa -2.5. That's a five-point swing with a clear cause.

Chiles has been Northwestern's offense. He ran for a career-high 93 yards and threw for 281 in the loss at Oregon, and the offense was built around his ability to run as well as throw. Marchiol is a less mobile quarterback with one pass attempt this season, and his first start for the program comes against a defense that ranks fourth nationally in both scoring and rushing defense. Iowa has also won the last four meetings in this series.

The spread money is with the Hawkeyes, 71% of it on 65% of the bets, and Iowa has covered a 2.5-point number in four of its seven games against FBS teams. -112 implies a 52.8% chance. The moneyline money points the other way, with 64% of it on Northwestern from 27% of the bets. Iowa's offense can go cold on the road, as it did in a 13-10 loss at Minnesota, and it's missing its center. Northwestern is 5-0 at home, too. If Chiles plays after all, the reason for this pick is gone.

PICK #2: Under 43.5 (-110)

The total sat at 45.5 before the Chiles news and dropped to 43.5 once it broke. That's still too many points for an Iowa game. Five of Iowa's seven games against FBS opponents finished under 43.5, and those seven averaged 38.7 total points. The Hawkeyes have three shutouts, including the 30-0 win over Wisconsin last time out.

Northwestern's games are the risk. All seven of its games against FBS teams went over 43.5, and it scored 42 on Rutgers and 45 on Ball State at home. But Chiles was the quarterback in every one of them. Now Northwestern needs a quarterback who has thrown one pass this season to beat a defense that allows 79 rushing yards a game. Iowa's offense won't do much for the Over either. It scored 20 or fewer in four of its seven FBS games, and it plays without its starting center and top running back.

Three of every four tickets and about two-thirds of the money are on the Under, so the public sees it the same way. At -110, the break-even is 52.4%. What beats this is a short field, since a turnover or a special-teams score can push a slow game past 44. A 24-14 Iowa win, which is about what we expect, stays well under.

PICK #3: DJ Vonnahme 30+ Receiving Yards (-171)

Vonnahme has reached 30 receiving yards in six of his seven games this season: 42 against Northern Illinois, 25 against Iowa State, then 44 at Michigan, 64 against Ohio State, 44 at Washington, 31 at Minnesota and 54 against Wisconsin. He missed the Northern Iowa game. His one miss came in a 16-13 game, and he still caught two passes.

He doesn't need a big passing night to get there. Brown threw for 222 yards in the 30-0 win over Wisconsin, and Vonnahme had 54 of them. Even in the 13-10 loss at Minnesota, with the offense stuck, he caught six passes for 31. In a tight, physical game, a tight end working the middle of the field is the target Iowa keeps going back to.

The price is steep. -171 implies a 63.1% chance, and his record clears it, but Iowa runs first and the Minnesota game shows how thin the margin can get. Brown still isn't officially confirmed as the starter, and the line in front of him is missing its center.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.