Iowa State vs. Baylor Prediction, CFB Week 10 Odds & Best Bets (11/7)

Fact checked at 9:03 AM ET, Nov 7, 2026

Odds as of 8:00 AM ET, Nov 7, 2026

Iowa State (4-4, 2-3 Big 12) visits Baylor (5-3, 3-2) at 12:00 PM ET at McLane Stadium in Waco. Baylor is a 9.5-point favorite and the total is 50.5. The Bears won 41-9 at UCF last week in their first game under interim head coach Joe Klanderman, the defensive coordinator who took over after Dave Aranda was fired. Iowa State beat Oklahoma State 51-49 on a field goal at the gun.

This should be a low-scoring game that stays inside two scores. Baylor allows 15.3 points a game and has held seven of eight opponents to 20 or fewer. Iowa State scored 3 and 10 points in its two road games against Big 12 defenses. And Baylor's offense has been streaky, with 24 points or fewer in four of its seven games against major-college opponents. That's a game for the Under and for Iowa State with the points. Jaylen Raynor is set to start at quarterback for Iowa State; backup Connor Moberly is out, and coach Jimmy Rogers said he'll miss "four weeks or so."

Iowa State vs. Baylor Predictions

• Pick #1: Under 50.5 (-107)
• Pick #2: Iowa State +9.5 (-105)

PICK #1: Under 50.5 (-107)

Baylor's games rarely get to 50. Against major-college opponents the Bears are 5 of 7 to the Under at this number: 17-16 at Auburn, 23-13 against Colorado, 17-6 against TCU, 25-24 at Kansas and 41-9 at UCF. Iowa State has gone under in four of seven, so the two teams together are 9 of 14.

Baylor ranks second in the nation in sacks and third in tackles for loss. It allows 99.4 rushing yards a game and held UCF to 66 on the ground last week. That matters because Iowa State's offense runs through Aiden Flora, and when a good defense has taken him away, the Cyclones have stalled. They scored 3 at Arizona. At BYU they managed 10 points and 200 yards and went 2 of 13 on third down. Iowa State offensive coordinator Tyler Roehl called Baylor's front "really stout." The Under at -107 carries a 51.7% implied probability.

The risk is that Iowa State games can turn into track meets. The 51-49 win over Oklahoma State and a 45-42 win over West Virginia both sailed over, the Cyclones allow 27.3 points a game, and Baylor has put up 55 at Arizona State and 41 at UCF. Most of the public is on the Over, with 58% of the bets and 56% of the money. A fast Baylor start could open the game up.

PICK #2: Iowa State +9.5 (-105)

Nine and a half is a lot of points in a game played in the 40s. Baylor's three losses came by 1, 11 and 1, and its offense scored 16, 6 and 24 in them. DJ Lagway is completing 53% of his passes, so the 319 yards he threw for at UCF hasn't been the norm.

Iowa State has won or lost by fewer than 9.5 in four of its seven games against major-college opponents, including a one-score loss at Iowa and the wins over West Virginia and Oklahoma State. Flora ran for 221 yards against Oklahoma State and averages 117.1 rushing yards a game, and a run-first offense keeps the clock moving in a game that already looks low scoring. Baylor opened as a 9.5-point favorite, and the bigger tickets are on Iowa State: it has 69% of the spread money on 40% of the bets. At -105, that's a 51.2% proposition.

Iowa State's record against good defenses is the problem. It lost by 36 at Arizona, by 14 at BYU and by 14 to Utah, and Baylor's run defense is built to stop exactly what Flora does. Cornerback Keyon Washington, who played last week, is out, which thins a pass defense that allows 231.3 yards a game. And with Moberly out, an injury to Raynor would leave Iowa State very thin at quarterback.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.