Fact checked at 8:00 AM ET, Nov 10, 2026Odds as of 7:18 AM ET, Nov 10, 2026
No. 3 Illinois (2-0) visits No. 16 Texas Tech (2-0) at 8:00 PM ET at United Supermarkets Arena in Lubbock. The Illini are scoring 116 points a game, but they did it at home against FDU (120-45) and Penn (112-70). Texas Tech's wins, 76-42 over Jackson State and 76-58 over Bethune-Cookman, also came at home. Each side is missing its best player. Illinois is still without preseason All-American David Mirkovic, who is out after foot surgery and an emergency appendectomy, and Jake Davis (shoulder). Texas Tech's JT Toppin is still recovering from the torn ACL he suffered late last season. Expect Texas Tech to drag this into a half-court game and keep it close, with a final that looks a lot more like last season's 81-77 meeting than this total. Men's college basketball has no availability report, so starting fives are projected.
Illinois vs. Texas Tech Predictions
Pick #1Under 167.5−110
These teams want to play at very different speeds, and in a game like this the home team usually gets more say. T-Rank has Texas Tech's adjusted tempo at 69.1 possessions, 302nd in the country. Illinois sits at 73.1, 43rd. KenPom's tempo numbers point the same way. Those 116-point nights came in two home routs of low-major teams, while Texas Tech has allowed 50 points a game and ranks second nationally on T-Rank in turnover rate forced (against weak opponents too, to be fair).
T-Rank projects Texas Tech by 1 with a 157-point total, more than 10 below this line. Last season's meeting in Champaign closed around 168.5 and finished at 158, and Toppin scored 35 of those. Neither he nor Mirkovic plays tonight.
At -110 the implied probability is 52.4%, and 68% of the money on the total sits on the Under from 46% of the bets. Illinois's size could break it. The Illini outrebounded their first two opponents 127-54, and if misses turn into putbacks and run-outs, Texas Tech loses control of the pace. Transfer forward Jamichael Stillwell is expected to make his Texas Tech debut after a court order made him eligible. He should help on the glass, but he's new to the rotation.
Pick #2Texas Tech +2.5−115
The public ratings call this a coin flip. T-Rank has Texas Tech winning by 1, and ESPN's BPI gives Illinois a 55.8% chance to win on the road. With +2.5 we have Texas Tech outright and a narrow Illinois win. The price implies 53.5%.
This is Illinois's first road game of the season, and Texas Tech hasn't lost a non-conference home game in 48 tries. Cruz Davis is averaging 15.0 points, 4.5 assists and 4.5 steals, and the team is averaging 10.5 steals. Illinois has turned it over 13 times a game against FDU and Penn. Dra Gibbs-Lawhorn, a former Illini guard, put up 25 against Bethune-Cookman.
Texas Tech has drawn 57% of the spread money on just 7% of the tickets, with 92% of the tickets on Illinois. This pick shares the Under's weak spot. If Illinois owns the glass like it did in its first two games, the top offense on T-Rank can build a lead Texas Tech can't chase down without Toppin.
21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
