Hawks vs. Magic Prediction, NBA Odds & Best Bets (10/21)

Fact checked at 7:45 AM ET, Oct 21, 2026

Odds as of Oct 21, 7:42 AM ET

Atlanta starts the season with the lineup it finished last season with. Orlando starts it with a new coach.

The Hawks went 46-36 last season and beat the Magic all four times, including 124-112 and 130-101 after CJ McCollum came over from Washington in January. Quin Snyder has said the group that had continuity at the end of last season is how Atlanta will start this one: McCollum, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Dyson Daniels, Jalen Johnson and Onyeka Okongwu. Luguentz Dort and Aaron Wiggins, both acquired from Oklahoma City, come off the bench. Atlanta went 4-1 in the preseason.

Orlando went 45-37 and plays its first game under Sean Sweeney, who spent the exhibition season installing a faster offense built on ball movement. The Magic went 3-1 in those games. Anthony Black, Jonathan Isaac, Noah Penda and Izaiyah Nelson are out. Franz Wagner left the preseason finale with right shoulder soreness, but he practiced fully on Tuesday, is off the injury report and plans to play. Atlanta is without Mouhamed Gueye and Henri Veesaar. Orlando opened -2.5 and sits at -3.5, with the Magic -148 on the moneyline and the total at 235.5. Tip-off is Wednesday at 7:00 PM ET at Kia Center.

We're backing Atlanta's settled starting group to keep this close or win it, with Alexander-Walker getting his usual scoring night along the way.

Hawks vs. Magic Predictions

• Pick #1: Nickeil Alexander-Walker Over 18.5 Points (-121)
• Pick #2: Hawks +3.5 (-118)

PICK #1: Nickeil Alexander-Walker Over 18.5 Points (-121)

Alexander-Walker scored 19, 20, 41 and 32 against Orlando last season. That alone wouldn't carry a bet, but it fits the rest of his year. He won Most Improved Player, averaged 20.8 points over 78 games and topped 18.5 in 48 of them, or 61.5%. The trade for McCollum didn't cut into his scoring, either: from McCollum's first game in Atlanta on, he averaged 21.2 points in about 34 minutes and went over this number 26 times in 40 games.

He's starting again, and his minutes climbed through the preseason. He scored 14 points in 16 minutes against Memphis in the opener, 7 in 23 at San Antonio, 16 in 25 against Oklahoma City and 25 in 27 in the finale at Dallas, the night Atlanta was back at full strength. That's four exhibition games, with the best one coming in the biggest workload.

At -121, the price implies 54.8%. His record in this role says he clears it more often than that. Two things could get in the way. Dort and Wiggins add perimeter depth, and Snyder has said depth will force hard calls on how many minutes people play. Alexander-Walker also cooled off in the playoffs, scoring between 9 and 17 points in all six games against New York. We trust the regular season more here, in the same lineup and against a team he scored at least 19 on in all four meetings.

PICK #2: Hawks +3.5 (-118)

Atlanta beat Orlando by 4, 15, 12 and 29 points last season, but only the last two tell us much about tonight. The first two came in October and November, with Trae Young starting one and Kristaps Porzingis the other. The March and April wins came with the same five Snyder is starting tonight: by 12 at home when Orlando was without Franz Wagner, and by 29 in Orlando against the Magic's usual starting five. That five is back intact. Orlando kept its core but changed its coach and its offense, and it opens without Black, a rotation guard, plus Isaac and Penda. Wagner is expected to play, though his preseason ended early with that shoulder.

Two public projection models have Orlando as a 1.5- to 2-point favorite. The market has the Magic at 3.5 after opening at 2.5, so a Magic win by one, two or three still cashes this. The -118 price works out to 54.1%.

The risk is plain enough. Orlando is at home, and it finished just one game behind Atlanta last season. If Sweeney's offense works right away, the Magic can win by more than a possession.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.