Gonzaga vs. Purdue Prediction, Men's College Basketball Odds & Best Bets (11/2)

Fact checked at 8:47 AM ET, Nov 2, 2026

Odds as of 8:46 AM ET, Nov 2, 2026

No. 15 Gonzaga and Purdue open the season at 7:30 PM ET on TNT at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, a neutral floor. We think Purdue drags this into a half-court game, its rebuilt offense can't keep up with Gonzaga's size, and the Zags win something like 75-66. So we're on Gonzaga -5.5 and the Under.

Both rosters are new, and neither has played a real game yet. Purdue returns 41 starts and 34.6% of its scoring from a 30-9 Elite Eight team. Gonzaga, 31-4 last season, rebuilt around Braden Huff with older transfers. The starting fives below are projections, since no lineups have been posted.

Gonzaga vs. Purdue Predictions

• Pick #1: Gonzaga -5.5 (-105)
• Pick #2: Under 154.5 (-112)

PICK #1: Gonzaga -5.5 (-105)

Purdue lost Braden Smith, Fletcher Loyer, Trey Kaufman-Renn and Oscar Cluff, and C.J. Cox is its only returning starter. Its beat writers call limiting turnovers the team's "biggest must" for its "young and aggressive guards," and note it has no go-to player or play. That's a hard way to open against a top-15 team.

Huff in the paint is the matchup we like most. He averaged 17.8 points last season in the 18 games he played before a dislocated kneecap ended his year. Purdue's 7-foot-3 center, Daniel Jacobsen, has to stay out of foul trouble, and its backups behind him, Enzo Shahrvin and Raleigh Burgess, are unproven. Gonzaga can also throw Massamba Diop, a 7-1 shot-blocker from Arizona State, and Izan Almansa at the rim. Gonzaga's projected five is Xaivian Lee, Isiah Harwell, Davis Fogle, Huff and Diop; Fogle missed the exhibition at Arkansas with a leg injury and played in the last one.

The line has moved from Gonzaga -4.5 to -5.5. The -105 price implies 51.2%. The preseason computer ratings we found have Gonzaga by one to six, so we're laying a bit more than they would. Our bet is that Purdue's offense is further behind than a rating built on roster data can see.

Purdue has won all five meetings, though only Huff is back from either 2024 roster. It made 17 threes in its exhibition against Ball State, and Mark Few called Purdue "phenomenal on the glass." If the shots fall, this stays close.

PICK #2: Under 154.5 (-112)

Matt Painter's teams play slowly. Purdue finished outside the top 300 in one widely used adjusted tempo rating in three of the last four seasons, and that's a coach habit more than a roster one. Few expects Purdue to "try to make every basket hard."

Neither offense looked ready in the preseason. Purdue went 2-for-25 from three in a 76-53 exhibition loss at UConn and made 32.7% of its 98 threes across three exhibitions. Gonzaga shot 21.4% from deep in its exhibition at Arkansas. It is also without Chauncey Wiggins, the Florida State transfer it added for his shooting; he's ineligible after a Texas judge tentatively denied his request for a restraining order. The last three meetings, with different players, all stayed under closing totals between 152.5 and 155.5.

The total has slipped from 155.5. At -112 you're paying for a 52.8% chance, and the preseason projections sit close to this number, so this is a lean on opening-night offense more than a big gap.

Gonzaga wants to run. Painter called the Zags "great in transition," and turnovers from Purdue's young guards would hand them easy points. If Wiggins is cleared to play, Gonzaga gets a proven shooter back and this pick is weaker.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.