Flyers vs. Sabres Prediction, NHL Odds & Best Bets (10/21)

Fact checked at 7:48 AM ET, Oct 21, 2026

Odds as of Oct 21, 7:47 AM ET

Philadelphia lost its first nine games (0-6-3), then beat Ottawa 3-1 on Saturday and Colorado 3-2 on Monday. It brings a 2-6-3 record to Buffalo, and the two wins didn't fix much underneath. The Flyers have 17 goals in 11 games, 1.55 a game and the fewest in the league, and they're 0-4-1 on the road. They take 21.5 shots a game and allow 32.3; only Vancouver is worse at both ends. They beat Colorado without Travis Konecny, Owen Tippett, Rasmus Ristolainen and Cam York, all on injured reserve, and without Tyson Foerster, who took a shot off his right hand on Saturday.

Buffalo is 4-3-2 and 3-2-0 at home. It's back from a three-game trip where every game went past regulation, the last a 4-3 overtime loss in Montreal on Saturday. Two regulars are due back: captain Rasmus Dahlin, who missed three games with an upper-body injury and said he expects to play, and Jason Zucker, set for his season debut after sports hernia surgery. Buffalo is a -185 favorite, up from -152 when the line opened Monday. Puck drop is Wednesday at 7:30 PM ET at KeyBank Center.

Our read: this Flyers offense doesn't get enough pucks to the net to score much, and both picks come from that. A night of Philadelphia pouring shots on goal would hurt both.

Flyers vs. Sabres Predictions

• Pick #1: Flyers Team Total Under 2.5 Goals (-110)
• Pick #2: Christian Dvorak Under 1.5 Shots on Goal (+110)

PICK #1: Flyers Team Total Under 2.5 Goals (-110)

Philadelphia has scored two or fewer in 9 of 11 games, and in every one of its five road games. Six road goals in five games is 1.2 a night. There isn't much volume behind it either: 21.5 shots a game, and 17 goals on 236 shots, a 7.2% conversion rate. Foerster (22 shots) and Tippett (21) were the team's top two shooters, and neither played Monday. Konecny has missed six straight. Buffalo gives up 25.7 shots a game, so the Flyers shouldn't expect a flood of chances.

At -110 the price implies 52.4%. What could beat it is Buffalo's goaltending, which has been bad. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen is at .860, and Colten Ellis, who took the starter's net at Tuesday's practice, is at .864. The Sabres have allowed 33 goals in nine games, not counting shootouts, three or more in eight of them, and their penalty kill is at 64.5%. Philadelphia also scored three in each of its last two games, and last season, with a healthier lineup, it averaged 2.93.

PICK #2: Christian Dvorak Under 1.5 Shots on Goal (+110)

Dvorak centers Philadelphia's top line, but he's rarely the one shooting. He has 11 shots in 11 games this season while playing 17:26 a night. In 8 of his last 10 he had one shot or none, and four times he didn't register a shot at all, including Saturday against Ottawa in 21:41 of ice time. The two exceptions in that run were three shots against Carolina on Oct. 11 and two against Colorado on Monday.

His longer record cuts the other way. Last season he had 151 shots in 80 games, 1.89 a game, and he has 969 in 625 career games. The difference is the team around him: Philadelphia averaged 25.5 shots a game last season and is down to 21.5, and Dvorak's share of those has dropped too. On his own line the shots go elsewhere. Trevor Zegras has 15 in his last five games to Dvorak's six, and Noel Acciari had four on Monday. Dvorak centered both of them in Monday's lineup and plays on the second power-play unit.

+110 implies 47.6%. The risk is game state: he shot twice on Monday, and a Flyers team playing from behind could throw more pucks at the net.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.