Florida vs. Georgia Prediction, CFB Week 9 Odds & Best Bets (10/31)

Fact checked at 9:41 AM ET, Oct 31, 2026

Odds as of 8:15 AM ET, Oct 31, 2026

No. 17 Florida (5-2, 3-2 SEC) and No. 3 Georgia (6-1, 4-1 SEC) kick off at 3:30 PM ET on ABC at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, the rivalry's first game in Atlanta. Georgia should win. We don't think it pulls away, because Florida can keep scoring with Jadan Baugh finishing drives and Aaron Philo throwing efficiently in his return from a shoulder injury. That means Florida with the points, a Baugh touchdown and Philo's yards.

Georgia is -11.5 (-111), with some books at -12.5. It has won five straight in the series, though last year's game ended 24-20. Philo missed Florida's 27-24 win at Texas and is reported to be back as the starter. The school hasn't announced it, and he and Tramell Jones Jr. are both Probable on the latest SEC report.

Florida vs. Georgia Predictions

• Pick #1: Florida +11.5 (-109)
• Pick #2: Jadan Baugh Anytime TD (-190)
• Pick #3: Aaron Philo 180+ Passing Yards (-165)

PICK #1: Florida +11.5 (-109)

Georgia's last two games were each decided by three points: a 20-17 win at Alabama and a 27-24 home loss to Auburn, when Gunner Stockton turned it over three times. This offense doesn't give itself many chances to build a margin, either. Georgia has run 436 plays in seven games, tied for 101st nationally, and its ground game is short, with Chauncey Bowens Out and Nate Frazier coming off nine carries for 19 yards against Auburn.

Florida has already beaten two top-seven teams, 52-28 over then-No. 4 Ole Miss and on the road at then-No. 7 Texas. At -109, you're paying for a 52.2% chance that Florida wins or loses by 11 or fewer, and we'll take that.

The worry is the Florida that lost 45-17 at Missouri and 38-19 to South Carolina in back-to-back weeks with Philo starting. Georgia also beat Arkansas, Oklahoma and Vanderbilt by 24 or more. Florida allows 255.0 passing yards a game, 15th in the SEC, Stockton is completing 74.1% of his passes, and receiver Vernell Brown III is Questionable after missing three games with a knee injury.

PICK #2: Jadan Baugh Anytime TD (-190)

This is a short price, and Baugh's longer record is why we'll pay it. He leads the SEC with 13 rushing touchdowns and has scored in six of seven games. Last season he scored in 9 of 12, two of them on catches, and he ran for one in that 24-20 game against Georgia. That's 15 of 19 over two seasons, against an implied 65.5%.

Georgia allows 91.4 rushing yards a game, second in the SEC, but Alabama ran for 161 and Auburn for 192 in Georgia's last two, and it has given up a rushing touchdown in three straight. Duke Clark, who ran for touchdowns at Auburn and against Ole Miss, is Out. Baugh isn't on the report, and he carried 25 times and scored at Texas with Jones at quarterback, so his role doesn't depend on who starts.

Missouri is how this loses: 12 carries, 13 yards and no score in a game that got away from Florida. At -190, there's little room for a day like that.

PICK #3: Aaron Philo 180+ Passing Yards (-165)

Philo has reached 180 in all six games he's played for Florida: 275 against FAU, 242 against Campbell, an FCS team, then 204, 196, 197 and 227 in SEC play. It's only six games, but he hasn't needed volume. He had 204 on 22 attempts at Auburn and 196 on 23 against Ole Miss, which fits a plan built around Baugh.

Georgia allows 185.0 passing yards a game, sixth in the SEC, yet the lead passer for four of its last five opponents got to 180: 212 for Arkansas, 231 for Oklahoma, 190 for Vanderbilt and 185 for Alabama. Auburn's Byrum Brown had 150. Georgia's Tyriq Green is Out at safety and KJ Bolden is Questionable. Philo's 197 and 227 came without Vernell Brown, so that status doesn't change much here. The price implies 62.3%.

He hasn't played since hurting his shoulder against South Carolina, and Jon Sumrall said he was available at Texas only "in an emergency capacity." Georgia has 22 sacks, and Philo took three in each of his last two games. If Jones starts, the case for this pick is gone.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.