Duke vs. NC State Prediction, CFB Week 10 Odds & Best Bets (11/7)

Fact checked at 9:04 AM ET, Nov 7, 2026

Odds as of 8:07 AM ET, Nov 7, 2026

Duke (6-2, 3-2 ACC) visits NC State (4-4, 2-3 ACC) at 12:30 PM ET at Carter-Finley Stadium in Raleigh. The Wolfpack are 4.5-point underdogs in their second game under interim coach Todd Goebbel, who took over when Dave Doeren was fired after the loss at Stanford. Goebbel's debut went well: a 31-10 win over Cal, with the defense shutting Cal out after halftime. Duke has won the last three meetings. The total sits at 51.5, with 82% of the bets on the Over.

Our read is a Duke win by five or more, with Walker Eget carrying a good share of it through the air. NC State is down three offensive linemen against a Duke defense that gives up 14.3 points a game. The Wolfpack front handles the run better than the pass, and that pushes Duke toward Eget. He and CJ Bailey are expected to start at quarterback, though neither is confirmed. It should be sunny and about 60 degrees, with a light northwest wind.

Duke vs. NC State Predictions

• Pick #1: Duke -4.5 (-110)
• Pick #2: Walker Eget 200+ Passing Yards (-163)

PICK #1: Duke -4.5 (-110)

Both teams have played Stanford and Virginia, and the comparison isn't close. Duke beat Stanford 35-7 and Virginia 19-16. NC State lost at Stanford 31-28 and at Virginia 34-8. The Wolfpack have given up at least 30 points in all four of their losses, while Duke has held its last two opponents to 18 points combined.

We'd lay the points because of the line of scrimmage. NC State is without offensive linemen Spike Sowells Jr., Yousef Mugharbil and Daniel Cruz, and Teague Andersen, who moved from tackle to center, is questionable. Duke allows 103.5 rushing yards a game. If NC State can't run, a patched line has to keep Bailey upright for four quarters.

This isn't a pick the public likes. Of the spread bets, 69% are on NC State, along with 73% of the money. Duke's road games have been tight, too: wins by four at Illinois and three at Virginia, then a three-point loss at Georgia Tech. All three of its covers of this number against FBS teams came at home. Duke is also without kicker Cosme Salas and three offensive linemen, and NC State running back Duke Scott is questionable after missing three games. Still, -110 implies only 52.4%, and the Stanford and Virginia results say the gap between these teams is wider than four and a half.

PICK #2: Walker Eget 200+ Passing Yards (-163)

NC State's defense is the kind that puts the ball in Eget's hands. The Wolfpack allow 131 rushing yards a game and 235.1 through the air, and Duke offensive coordinator Jonathan Brewer said their front can "stuff the run with those guys."

Eget has thrown for 200 or more in six of his seven games against FBS opponents: 206 at Illinois, 202 against Stanford, 259 at Georgia Tech, 249 against North Carolina, 211 at Virginia and 201 against Boston College. The one miss was the opener, 131 yards in a 17-3 win over Tulane. His 182 against FCS William & Mary is left out. Even in the 47-2 rout of Boston College, on only 18 throws, he got to 201. The -163 price implies 62.0%, and his FBS record runs well ahead of that.

What could sink it is the receiver room. Duke is without wide receivers Jamien Little, Kavon Simmons and Qeanu Johnson, plus three offensive linemen, and NC State had three sacks against Cal. Tight end Jeremiah Hasley, questionable earlier in the week, is available on the latest report. And three of those six games cleared by a hair: 201, 202 and 206.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.