Fact checked at 9:19 AM ET, Nov 14, 2026Odds as of 7:27 AM ET, Nov 14, 2026
New Jersey (14-6-0) and Washington (10-7-0) wrap up a home-and-home at 7:00 PM ET at Capital One Arena, two nights after the Devils won 5-2 in Newark. It was a one-goal game in one direction or the other for the first 57 minutes, and the last goal went into an empty net. Washington won the first meeting 4-2 at home earlier this season. The Devils are a small road favorite, and the total is 6.5.
Both picks come from the same place: New Jersey keeps the puck. The Devils average 32.8 shots a game, second-most in the league, and allow 24.95, third-fewest. Plenty of that volume goes through second-line wing Luke Evangelista, and very little of what's left reaches Alex Ovechkin, whose role has shrunk this season. We don't need a winner or a total. New Jersey said earlier this week that Connor Hellebuyck, 6-0-0 since the Devils traded for him, would start both games of the set. Logan Thompson is expected in Washington's net but hasn't been confirmed. Devils defenseman Brett Pesce missed the last game with an illness, and his status hasn't been announced.
Devils vs. Capitals Predictions
Pick #1Alex Ovechkin Under 2.5 Shots on Goal−185
Twenty-eight shots in 17 games. That's 1.65 a night, and Ovechkin hasn't had more than three in any of them. He's been at two or fewer in 14 of the 17 (82.4%) and in 8 of his last 10. The -185 price implies 64.9%.
The price is steep because of who he used to be. Last season he put 244 shots on goal in 82 games, almost three a night, in 17:27 of ice time. This season he's at 13:46, with one goal and no power-play points, and in the last game he was listed on a line with Ilya Protas and Anthony Beauvillier, who played 9:40 and 10:13. Less ice time and a lower shot rate explain the drop.
New Jersey is one of the worst opponents for a breakout night. Only two teams allow fewer shots, and Ovechkin had two against the Devils two nights ago and one in the first meeting.
What could beat it is the power play. He still gets time on Washington's top unit, so a game full of penalties gives him extra looks. Three shots beats the bet, and he has hit exactly three in three games this season. A move back into the top six would also change the math.
Pick #2Luke Evangelista Over 1.5 Shots on Goal−170
Evangelista has two or more shots in 13 of his 17 games (76.5%) and 45 shots in all, 2.65 a game. Four of his last five games produced three or more. The -170 price implies 63.0%.
This isn't a hot streak. With Nashville last season he had two or more in 54 of 81 games, 66.7%, playing 16:37 a night. In New Jersey he's up to 17:06 on the second line with Timo Meier and Nico Hischier, and he's on the second power-play unit. The three games he missed earlier this season were for an illness, and he hasn't missed one since.
Washington allows 27.8 shots a game, close to the middle of the league, so this isn't a soft defense, but New Jersey's volume spreads across a lot of shooters, and a normal Devils game gets him to two.
The last meeting is the knock. He played 17:25 two nights ago and didn't put a shot on goal, and he's had one or none in three of his last ten. At -170, one of those nights costs more than a win pays back.
21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
