Colorado vs. Arizona State Prediction, CFB Week 10 Odds & Best Bets (11/7)

Fact checked at 9:12 AM ET, Nov 7, 2026

Odds as of 8:07 AM ET, Nov 7, 2026

Colorado (3-5, 1-4 Big 12) visits Arizona State (4-4, 2-3) at 7:30 PM ET in Tempe. Arizona State is a 3.5-point favorite, -162 on the moneyline against Colorado's +135, and the total is 48.5. Of the moneyline bets, 81% are on the Sun Devils, and 62% of total bets are on the Over.

The Buffaloes ended a five-game losing streak last week with a 27-24 overtime win over Kansas State, their first Big 12 win. Arizona State lost 27-20 at BYU in freshman Jake Fette's first college start, and coach Kenny Dillingham said Fette stays the starter while Mikey Keene works back from a knee injury. Arizona State should win at home by more than a field goal, with Colorado playing from behind and throwing to Joseph Williams to stay in it.

Colorado vs. Arizona State Predictions

• Pick #1: Arizona State -3.5 (-102)
• Pick #2: Joseph Williams 60+ Receiving Yards (-198)

PICK #1: Arizona State -3.5 (-102)

Colorado has not traveled well. The Buffaloes are 1-3 on the road, and their only win away from Boulder was 14-13 at Georgia Tech. The losses were 41-7 at Northwestern, 23-13 at Baylor and 57-24 at Oklahoma State. Arizona State is 3-1 at home, with one of those wins against FCS Morgan State.

All 49 computer ratings in one widely used aggregator have Arizona State winning this game, and their median margin is 6.5 points. One major matchup predictor gives the Sun Devils a 64.3% chance. The spread at -102 implies 50.5%, and a margin close to a touchdown would cover 3.5 with a few points to spare.

Cardae Mack takes pressure off a new quarterback. He ran for 159 yards against Kansas State and 123 at BYU. Colorado's secondary will be thinner too, because defensive backs Naeten Mitchell, who made seven tackles against Kansas State, and Braylon Edwards are both out on the Big 12's latest availability report.

Fette is where this could go wrong. BYU sacked him six times in the first half before he settled in and finished 22 of 42 for 166 yards and two touchdowns without an interception. Arizona State has allowed 25 sacks, and Colorado had five against Kansas State. One preview ranks Colorado's run defense among the best in the country by efficiency, which could slow Mack, and Arizona State has covered 3.5 in only three of its seven games against FBS teams. The case assumes Fette starts, as Dillingham said. Keene is listed as probable, and a change at quarterback would change the picture.

PICK #2: Joseph Williams 60+ Receiving Yards (-198)

Colorado's passing game runs through Williams. He has 51 catches for 732 yards in eight games, 91.5 a game, and he's gone over 60 yards in six of them. Against FBS teams only, he's five of seven, with misses of 23 at Georgia Tech in the opener and 54 against Utah.

Isaac Wilson has done most of Colorado's throwing in each of the last five games, and in those Williams has had 127 at Baylor, 93 against Texas Tech, 54 against Utah, 135 at Oklahoma State and 89 against Kansas State. He caught 11 passes at Baylor, 10 against Texas Tech and nine at Oklahoma State. Julian Lewis, the other quarterback who threw at Baylor, hasn't played since.

At -198 the price implies 66.4%. His FBS record of five in seven (71.4%) only just clears that, so the case rests more on the 91.5-yard average than on the hit rate. Even in the Kansas State win, when Richard Young ran 24 times for 120 yards and two touchdowns and Wilson threw just 21 passes, Williams had five catches for 89 yards. If Arizona State gets ahead, Colorado has to throw more. Receivers Kaleb Mathis and Danny Scudero are out again, and neither caught a pass in those five games, so the targets go to the same group.

What beats this is a game Colorado controls on the ground. Coach Deion Sanders named Young the starter, and Arizona State allows 216 passing yards a game. At a price this short, one quiet night is enough to lose. The pick also assumes Wilson starts, as he has in each of the last four games.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.