Chiefs vs. Raiders Prediction, NFL Week 4 Odds & Best Bets (10/4)

Fact checked at 8:30 AM ET, Oct 4, 2026

Odds as of Oct 4, 7:42 AM ET

Two 3-0 teams meet in the AFC West on Sunday, and whoever wins leads the division by a game. Kansas City has scored 88 points and allowed 50, tied for the third-fewest among teams with three games played. Las Vegas has also scored 88. Kirk Cousins has nine touchdown passes in three games, and the offense is averaging 29.3 points after putting up 14.2 a game last season. The consensus line has the Chiefs as 4.5-point road favorites with a total of 47.5. The market has moved since the Sep 22 opener of Chiefs -5.5 and 43.5: the total is up four points and the spread is down one. Both numbers were already in place before Friday's injury report, after the Raiders' 35-27 win at New Orleans and Brock Bowers's return, so the move came before Friday's news.

Chiefs left tackle Josh Simmons (back) is out for a fourth straight game; he has not played this season. Raiders right guard Jackson Powers-Johnson (groin) is out too. Bowers and receiver Cody White were limited Friday and carry no game status. Inactives come out about 2:55 PM ET, and every pick below assumes its player is active. Kickoff is 4:25 PM ET at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, a dome, on CBS.

Chiefs vs. Raiders Predictions

• Pick #1: Jalen Nailor Under 19.5 Receiving Yards (-116)
• Pick #2: Xavier Worthy Under 35.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
• Pick #3: Kenneth Walker III Over 88.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

PICK #1: Jalen Nailor Under 19.5 Receiving Yards (-116)

Nailor is a role player in an offense that feeds Bowers, Tre Tucker, the backs and the other tight end, and Sunday he draws one of the league's stingiest pass defenses. Kansas City allows 178.3 net passing yards per game, sixth fewest, a number built against Denver, Indianapolis and Miami.

His logs are small. Nailor has caught 3, 1 and 1 passes for 27, 9 and 16 yards on 5, 3 and 3 targets while playing about 60% of the offensive snaps each week, so he's stayed under 19.5 in two of three games. Week 3 was the one game Bowers played, and Bowers drew nearly half of Las Vegas's targets while Nailor got three. At -116 (as of 7:46 AM ET), the Under implies 53.7%. Las Vegas also loses Powers-Johnson, who played every offensive snap in Weeks 1 and 2 and 65 of 70 in Week 3. The Chiefs have only four sacks in three games, though, so the Raiders' protection may not be tested as hard as the matchup suggests.

One long catch clears 19.5, and Nailor had 27 yards on five targets in Week 1. This bet also needs Bowers on the field. He was limited Friday with a knee issue and no game status, and Nailor saw 5 and 3 targets in the two games Bowers missed. If Bowers is inactive, skip it. Same if White (ankle, also limited Friday with no status) is ruled out, since his snaps and targets would shift toward Nailor. And if Nailor himself is inactive, drop the bet. For a different angle on Nailor, Under 1.5 receptions (+122) is the alternative. Unlike the two Chiefs picks, this one doesn't need a Kansas City lead; it needs the Chiefs' pass defense to hold up even if the Raiders are trailing and throwing.

PICK #2: Xavier Worthy Under 35.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

The line is 10 yards above Worthy's best game of the season. He has 10 catches for 63 yards through three games: 18, 25 and 20 yards on 6, 7 and 2 targets, while playing 77%, 86% and 83% of the snaps. That's three Unders in three tries, including a Week 2 game in which Patrick Mahomes threw 47 passes for 382 yards and Worthy still finished with 25.

The Chiefs' targets keep moving to other people. Walker had 10 and Travis Kelce 11 in Week 2, Rashee Rice had 9 in Week 3, and Worthy's 7 looks in Week 2 turned into only 25 yards. He also did that against pass defenses ranked 25th (Denver), 30th (Indianapolis) and 19th (Miami) in net passing yards allowed. Las Vegas allows 200.3 net passing yards per game, ninth fewest, built against Miami, the Chargers and New Orleans. That's better than Miami's 231.0 and well ahead of Denver and Indianapolis. At -115 (as of 7:46 AM ET), the price implies 53.5%.

The danger is the deep ball. Worthy was shaken up by a big hit in Week 3 and isn't on the injury report, and if Mahomes airs it out like he did in Week 2, one catch can beat 35.5. Drop the bet if he's inactive. Under 3.5 receptions (-169) is another way in, but you pay a lot more for it. This one and Walker's Over can cash together, and Week 3 showed how: Walker carried 18 times, Worthy got two targets for 20 yards, and Rice had 9 targets to Kelce's 2.

PICK #3: Kenneth Walker III Over 88.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

Walker has at least 18 carries every week, and the line sits below two of his three games. He's carried 23, 24 and 18 times for 173, 117 and 70 yards, on 68%, 82% and 73% of the snaps, while Emmett Johnson has 8, 2 and 6 carries behind him. Kansas City is fifth in the league in rushing yards at 153.3 per game, and Walker still had 20 touches in Week 3 when the Chiefs ran only 49 plays.

Here's the math. At 18 carries the line needs 4.9 yards a carry; at his 21.7 average it needs 4.1. The -110 price (as of 7:46 AM ET) implies 52.4%. Las Vegas is a middling run defense at 116.3 rushing yards allowed per game, built against Miami, the Chargers and New Orleans. That's more than Miami's 104.3, and Miami held Walker to 70, but less than Denver's 143.7 and Indianapolis's 141.3. With the Chiefs favored by 4.5, a lead should mean extra carries late.

What worries me is the yards per carry, which went from 7.5 to 4.9 to 3.9 as the run defenses got better. The Raiders have also run 93 times in three games, and that kind of offense can shorten the game and take possessions away from Kansas City. If Las Vegas leads, Walker's carries drop. If he's inactive, drop the bet. Walker Anytime Touchdown (-160) is the other option, at a much shorter price. Keep in mind that this pick and Worthy's Under both lean on a Kansas City lead, so a Raiders lead hurts both of them. Nailor's Under is the one that can survive that script, as long as the Chiefs' pass defense holds.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.