Chargers vs. Seahawks Prediction, NFL Week 4 Odds & Best Bets (10/4)

Fact checked at 8:30 AM ET, Oct 4, 2026

Odds as of Oct 4, 7:36 AM ET

The market has turned hard against the Chargers. They are 0-3 after losing 26-14 at home to Arizona, 26-14 at home to Las Vegas and 24-16 at Buffalo, and they have scored 14, 14 and 16 points. Justin Herbert is 52 of 88 (59.1%) with three touchdown passes and four interceptions. Seattle is 2-1. It beat New England 13-10 and Arizona 31-7, then lost 33-31 at Washington in Sam Darnold's first game back from the glute injury that kept him out of Week 2. The consensus price at 7:36 AM ET had the Seahawks as 7-point home favorites at -115. Seattle was roughly a field-goal favorite in the earliest numbers and was already at 6.5 by Sep 28, after Week 3, while the total slid from the mid-40s to 42.5. At -365, the Seattle moneyline is too short to bother with. Both player prop prices below were posted at 7:44 AM ET.

Neither starting quarterback is on the final injury report, and both Herbert and Darnold are expected to play. The Chargers have ruled out guard Kayode Awosika, tight end Charlie Kolar, receiver Brenen Thompson and defensive lineman Dalvin Tomlinson. Receiver Ladd McConkey, safeties Derwin James and Elijah Molden, cornerback Donte Jackson and backup quarterback Trey Lance are questionable. McConkey is likely to play, per NFL Network's Ian Rapoport. Seattle will be without running backs Zach Charbonnet (PUP list) and Jadarian Price (injured reserve), and safety Julian Love is set to return. Inactives are not out yet. Kickoff is 4:25 PM ET Sunday, Oct. 4, at Lumen Field in Seattle on CBS, with a sunny forecast near 70 degrees and light wind.

Chargers vs. Seahawks Predictions

• Pick #1: Omarion Hampton Under 5.5 Receiving Yards (-105)
• Pick #2: Justin Herbert Over 0.5 Interceptions (-130)

PICK #1: Omarion Hampton Under 5.5 Receiving Yards (-105)

Hampton gets the carries (12, 23 and 15 of them against Arizona, Las Vegas and Buffalo). He does not get the passes. His targets go 0, 2 and 1, and his only two catches came in Week 2, for 21 yards combined.

At Buffalo the throws to the backfield went elsewhere. Keaton Mitchell drew three targets, Kimani Vidal three and fullback Alec Ingold four, while Hampton got one. Mitchell's three catches that day netted minus-5 yards, and he is off the final injury report. The Chargers have lost every game by at least 8 points (12, 12 and 8), so the trailing script you would worry about is already in his numbers, and he still saw 0, 2 and 1 targets in it. The risk is plain: one six-yard catch sinks the Under, and he has gotten there once in three games.

Seattle has allowed the fewest net passing yards in the league, 141.7 a game, but that tells you about the whole defense, not about backs. This bet is about Hampton's role, and -105 implies a 51.2% chance.

What could go wrong? Backs and the fullback combined for 11 of the Chargers' 33 targets at Buffalo, so the checkdown volume exists if Herbert is under pressure, and the market leans the other way with the Over at -120. If McConkey sits, some of his targets could drift to the backs. A late Hampton scratch voids the bet; if Herbert is out, pass.

For a receiver angle on the same read, Quentin Johnston Under 35.5 (-113) works, though it needs McConkey to play.

PICK #2: Justin Herbert Over 0.5 Interceptions (-130)

Seattle's four interceptions are tied for the most in the league, and Herbert has thrown at least one in every game this season: one against Arizona, two against Las Vegas and one at Buffalo. That is four picks on 88 attempts, a 4.5% rate.

Two of those games came against bottom-half defenses: Arizona ranks 24th and Buffalo is tied for 21st in points allowed per game, with Las Vegas 8th. Now he gets a Seattle defense that has allowed only 141.7 net passing yards a game, the fewest in the league.

The price is -130, which implies 56.5%, and the Under pays +102, so the market already makes an interception more likely than not. I think it is a bit more likely than that. The Chargers are 7-point underdogs scoring 14.7 points a game, so chasing the game is the expected script. Just don't count on a big volume bump: he threw 27 passes in each 12-point loss and 34 in the 8-point loss.

Three games is a thin record, and an interception comes down to one bad throw. Twenty-five careful attempts, or an early Seattle lead that pushes the Chargers into running the ball, could leave this without a cash. If Herbert does not play, the bet is void.

These two picks pull in the same direction. If Herbert spends Sunday throwing downfield into Seattle's coverage instead of dumping it off to his backs, both should cash.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.