Bulls vs. Raptors Prediction, NBA Odds & Best Bets (10/21)

Fact checked at 7:45 AM ET, Oct 21, 2026

Odds as of Oct 21, 7:43 AM ET

Kawhi Leonard is back in a Toronto uniform. The Raptors traded for him in September, seven years after he led them to their first championship, and he joins Scottie Barnes on a team that went 46-36 last season and took Cleveland to seven games in the first round. Chicago is starting over. Tiago Splitter takes over as coach after a 31-51 season, the rebuild runs through rookie Caleb Wilson, Matas Buzelis and Josh Giddey, and Norman Powell and Buddy Hield came in over the offseason.

Toronto opened as an 8.5-point favorite and is laying 9.5, with the total at 236.5. Chicago is without center Nic Claxton (hamstring), and Jordan Hawkins and Dailyn Swain are doubtful with an illness. Jalen Smith starts at center in Claxton's place. Toronto lists only Nate Bittle out. Tip-off is Wednesday at 7:30 PM ET at Scotiabank Arena.

We expect Toronto to control this one behind Leonard and Barnes, and both bets come down to who gets the minutes. Chicago is short on big men, so its bench forwards move up. Toronto's starting center has been playing less, with Collin Murray-Boyles picking up the slack. A lopsided score would push both trends further.

Bulls vs. Raptors Predictions

• Pick #1: Leonard Miller Over 9.5 Points (+100)
• Pick #2: Jakob Poeltl Under 6.5 Rebounds (+102)

PICK #1: Leonard Miller Over 9.5 Points (+100)

Miller scored in double figures in all five of Chicago's preseason games: 14, 12, 26, 18 and 12 points. That's 16.4 a night in about 20 minutes off the bench, on 31-of-50 shooting, and the 26 came on 11-of-14 against Denver. Fair warning that two of those games were against Milwaukee and Minnesota with their starters resting. Denver's weren't.

Splitter likes what he has seen. He said Miller is "doing a tremendous job, just playing at the five and the four," and the Chicago Tribune wrote that Miller has earned a next-man-up spot ahead of Patrick Williams and Noa Essengue. Claxton is out for about two more weeks, and the Daily Herald reported Monday that Smith will start and that Miller and undrafted rookie Tobe Awaka will take on bigger frontcourt roles. Zach Collins is probable with a quad strain and was expected to be on a minutes restriction if cleared. There are a lot of frontcourt minutes here and not many bodies to soak them up.

He has scored like this in real games, too. Miller averaged 7.9 points in 15.7 minutes over 46 games last season, but in the 15 games where he played at least 24 minutes, he averaged 15.3 and hit double figures in 14. He finished the year with 17, 13, 26, 15 and 17.

Even money means a 50.0% break-even, and we think he clears it more often than that. Two things could get in the way. He's probable with a right adductor strain, a new injury, and Splitter has said he's comfortable going 11 deep, which can spread the minutes thin. If Toronto runs away with it, though, more of the second half goes to Chicago's bench.

PICK #2: Jakob Poeltl Under 6.5 Rebounds (+102)

Poeltl's minutes have been heading down. In last season's seven-game series with Cleveland he played 19.1 minutes a game and averaged 6.0 rebounds, staying under 6.5 in five of the seven, while Murray-Boyles played 27.3 minutes a game. In four preseason games this month Poeltl averaged 3.5 rebounds in about 21 minutes and never grabbed more than five.

Rajakovic has said he wants Murray-Boyles on the floor more this season, at power forward and center and next to Poeltl. In Leonard's first preseason game back, Poeltl had five rebounds in 19 minutes and Murray-Boyles had nine in 16 off the bench. Leonard (6.4 rebounds a game last season) and Barnes (7.5) eat into the boards too. And with Chicago going small, Smith at center, Toronto may have more reason to slide Murray-Boyles to the five.

At +102 this is a 49.5% bet, and the market is on the other side. That deserves respect. Over all of last season Poeltl averaged 7.0 rebounds in 25.0 minutes and cleared 6.5 in 28 of 46 games, and when he played 24 minutes or more he averaged 8.3. If Toronto wants size against Chicago's thin front line and gives him 25 minutes, this loses. A comfortable Toronto lead works for us, since it means fewer fourth-quarter minutes for the starters.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.