Bulls vs. Bucks Prediction, NBA Odds & Best Bets (10/23)

Fact checked at 10:05 AM ET, Oct 23, 2026

Odds as of Oct 23, 9:58 AM ET

Both teams lost on opening night, and Chicago lost far worse. Toronto beat the Bulls 135-92 on Wednesday, and Chicago turned it over 27 times and made 4 of 36 threes, with its starters going 3-for-25 from deep. Milwaukee fell 128-116 in Washington the same night, but the Bucks led 93-90 after three quarters before the Wizards won the fourth 38-23. Friday is Milwaukee's home opener, tipping at 4:00 PM ET at Fiserv Forum, and both teams play again Saturday.

Chicago is without center Nic Claxton (hamstring), so Jalen Smith is expected to start again, and bench guards Jordan Hawkins and Dailyn Swain are questionable with an illness. Milwaukee has no one on the injury report. The spread opened at Bucks -1.5, briefly flipped to Chicago -1.5 and has moved back to Milwaukee -1.5.

We expect Milwaukee to win a game in which Chicago's offense stalls somewhere around the low 110s, and both picks are built on that.

Bulls vs. Bucks Predictions

• Pick #1: Milwaukee Bucks Moneyline (-115)
• Pick #2: Chicago Bulls Team Total Under 119.5 (-110)

PICK #1: Milwaukee Bucks Moneyline (-115)

Milwaukee's loss in Washington got away late. Chicago's was over after one quarter, when Toronto had 43. Tyler Herro had 24 points and 9 assists for the Bucks, Jaime Jaquez Jr. scored 22 on 8-of-12 shooting, and the team made 15 threes. Now they get a home crowd and an opponent that just gave the ball away 27 times.

The center matchup helps too. With Claxton out, Smith starts, and Myles Turner can pull him away from the rim as a shooter. Milwaukee also won three of four against Chicago last season, including both games in Milwaukee by 16 points each, though both rosters have changed a lot since.

A -115 price implies a 53.5% chance. ESPN's matchup predictor has the Bucks at 57.7%, and most of the moneyline money has come in on Milwaukee.

Their defense is what worries us. The Bucks allowed 77 points after halftime in Washington, and Chicago shot 47 free throws in Toronto, so the Bulls can score without making shots. Milwaukee also plays at Philadelphia on Saturday, while Chicago hosts Washington.

PICK #2: Chicago Bulls Team Total Under 119.5 (-110)

The Bulls scored 92 in their opener, and it took 47 free throws to get there. Caleb Wilson, the rookie forward, went 7-for-21 with 9 turnovers. Josh Giddey went 1-for-10, and Matas Buzelis scored 17 while making only 2 of 8 shots.

Chicago is a new group under a new coach and is missing its starting center. Last season the Bulls averaged 116.3 points and finished at 119 or fewer in 48 of 82 games, and Milwaukee held opponents under 120 in 48 of its 82. Dimers projects Chicago for 117.

At -110 you need this to hit 52.4% of the time. Pace is the danger. Chicago played at the third-fastest pace in the league last season and kept a top-10 pace in the preseason, and the Bucks just gave up 128. If Giddey and Wilson shoot anywhere near normal, those extra possessions could carry the Bulls past 120.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.